On 26 September 2017, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) contracted ABSG Consulting, Inc.(ABSG) in an Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity contract # M17PC00015 (contract) to perform fault tree analysis to develop oil spill occurrence frequencies for size ranges of crude oil, condensate, and refined petroleum spills for use in environmental analyses related to proposed oil and gas leasing, exploration, development, and production activities in the Alaska Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Arctic Planning Areas.
The first task order #M17PD00066 (ABSG, 2018) in the contract involved estimation of spill occurrence frequencies. This analysis included: * Collation of historical US OCS oil spill incident data from a variety of sources * Calculation of oil spill frequency exposure metrics * Review of oil spill causal factors * Calculation of oil spill occurrence frequencies * Estimation of uncertainty metrics such as confidence intervals. The second task order #140M0118F0007 in the contract, included using the results from the first task order to perform fault tree analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate oil spill occurrence estimators for Beaufort Sea OCS Planning Area. This report documents the approach and results of the fault tree analysis and statistical simulation.