Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.
Notes
Cites: PLoS One. 2013;8(2):e5645023451049
Cites: Ecology. 2013 Feb;94(2):389-40223691658
Cites: Ecol Appl. 2011 Sep;21(6):2334-4821939065
Cites: Ecol Lett. 2013 Jan;16(1):112-2523013218
Cites: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2013 Aug 19;368(1624):2012049023836794
Cites: Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom. 2014 Mar 30;28(6):625-3424519825
Cites: Nature. 2002 Mar 28;416(6879):389-9511919621
Cites: Ecol Appl. 2006 Oct;16(5):1730-4317069367
Cites: PLoS One. 2008;3(3):e000174418320025
Cites: Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2008 Jul 12;363(1501):2317-2918006414