This study assessed whether US and Canadian smoking reduction objectives for the year 2000 are attainable. The United States seeks to cut smoking in its population to 15%; the Canadian goal is 24%.
Smoking data were obtained for the United States (1974-1994) and Canada (1970-1995) for the overall populations and several age-sex subpopulations. Analyses estimated trends, future prevalences, and the likelihood of goal attainment. Structural time-series models were used because of their ability to fit a variety of trends.
The findings indicate that smoking has been declining steadily since the 1970s, by approximately 0.7 percentage points a year, in both countries. Extrapolating these trends to the year 2000, the US prevalence will be 21% and the Canadian prevalence 24%.
If the current trends continue, the Canadian goal seems attainable, but the US goal does not. The US goal is reachable only for 65-to 80-year-olds, who already have low smoking prevalences. It appears that both countries must increase their commitment to population-based tobacco control.
Cites: JAMA. 1989 Jan 6;261(1):49-552908994
Cites: JAMA. 1989 Jan 6;261(1):61-52908996
Cites: Can J Public Health. 1992 Nov-Dec;83(6):404-61286438
Cites: Prev Med. 1990 Sep;19(5):552-612235922
Cites: Med Clin North Am. 1992 Mar;76(2):289-3031548962