Emerging evidence suggests muscle depletion predicts survival of patients with cancer.
At a cancer center in Alberta, Canada, consecutive patients with cancer (lung or GI; N = 1,473) were assessed at presentation for weight loss history, lumbar skeletal muscle index, and mean muscle attenuation (Hounsfield units) by computed tomography (CT). Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted. Concordance (c) statistics were used to test predictive accuracy of survival models.
Body mass index (BMI) distribution was 17% obese, 35% overweight, 36% normal weight, and 12% underweight. Patients in all BMI categories varied widely in weight loss, muscle index, and muscle attenuation. Thresholds defining associations between these three variables and survival were determined using optimal stratification. High weight loss, low muscle index, and low muscle attenuation were independently prognostic of survival. A survival model containing conventional covariates (cancer diagnosis, stage, age, performance status) gave a c statistic of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0.79), whereas a model ignoring conventional variables and including only BMI, weight loss, muscle index, and muscle attenuation gave a c statistic of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.95; P