Exponentially decaying modes and long-term prediction of sea ice concentration using Koopman mode decomposition.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature304602
Source
Sci Rep. 2020 10 01; 10(1):16313
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Date
10-01-2020
Author
James Hogg
Maria Fonoberova
Igor Mezic
Author Affiliation
Aimdyn, Inc., Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA.
Source
Sci Rep. 2020 10 01; 10(1):16313
Date
10-01-2020
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Abstract
Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to assess the temporal nature of the changes-e.g. linear or exponential-and their precise geographical loci. In this study, Koopman Mode Decomposition (KMD) is applied to satellite data of sea ice concentration for the Northern and Southern hemispheres to gain insight into the temporal and spatial dynamics of the sea ice behavior and to predict future sea ice behavior. We observe spatial modes corresponding to the mean and annual variation of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice concentration and observe decreases in the mean sea ice concentration from early to later periods, as well as corresponding shifts in the locations that undergo significant annual variation in sea ice concentration. We discover exponentially decaying spatial modes in both hemispheres and discuss their precise spatial extent, and also perform predictions of future sea ice concentration. The Koopman operator-based, data-driven decomposition technique gives insight into spatial and temporal dynamics of sea ice concentration not apparent in traditional approaches.
PubMed ID
33004885 View in PubMed
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