From the Department of Medicine, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland Department of Chronic Disease Prevention, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland Department of Medicine II, University Medical Center Mainz, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Germany Department of Medicine, University Hospital of Kuopio, Finland Department of Clinical Physiology, Tampere University Hospital and Medical School, University of Tampere, Finland Institute of Clinical Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu and Clinical Research Center, Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland Department of Health and Functional Capacity, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Turku, Finland FIMM, Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, Helsinki, Finland.
Objectives: To examine whether interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra) is a predictor for clinically incident diabetes in subjects with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and whether its predictive power is independent of C-reactive protein (CRP), an established marker of inflammation. We further examined whether genetic variants at the interleukin-1 (IL-1) locus would predict clinically incident diabetes. Design: Two observational prospective cohort studies. Setting: Two separate cohorts, Health 2000 and FINRISK 1997, followed up for an average of 7.1 and 10.8 years, respectively. Subjects: Random population samples consisting of 5,511 subjects aged 30-74 years in Health 2000 and 7,374 subjects aged 25-74 years in FINRISK 1997. Results: During follow-up, 141 cases of clinically incident diabetes were observed among subjects with MetS at baseline in Health 2000 and 248 cases in FINRISK 97. After adjustment for multiple traditional risk factors of diabetes, including age and body mass index, IL-1Ra was a significant (p