The description of prognostication model the distribution process of a narcotism (the heroine) among youth of large city is given. The model is developed with the purpose of study of a consequence of a narcotism among the teenagers and youth, which use a intravenous drugs user and have high risk of infection by a HIV-infection. The results of settlement researches heroine epidemic process in large city with the population about 1 million on retrospective per 10 years are submitted. The forecast of number of drug users on prospect per 5 years is made. It allows to estimate long-term consequences of a narcotism, as "has sunk down" for powerful epidemic AIDS in city in nearest 10 years.