Long-term nationwide trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and 5-year outcomes are rare.
We conducted a population-based cohort study using the Danish National Patient Registry covering all Danish hospitals. We computed standardized incidence rates during 1983-2012. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of heart failure, stroke, and death within 5years, comparing 5-year calendar periods with the earliest period (1983-1987) as reference.
We identified 312,420 patients with first-time hospital-diagnosed AF. The incidence rate per 100,000person-years increased from 98 in 1983 to 307 in 2012. The mean annual increase during the 30-year study period was 4%, with a 6% increase annually until 2000 and a 1.4% increase annually thereafter. The incidence trends were most pronounced among men and persons above 70years. Among high-risk subgroups, AF incidence was consistently highest in patients with valvular heart disease or heart failure. The rate of heart failure following AF declined by 50% over the entire study period (HR: 0.49, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.48-0.51) and the mortality rate declined by 40% (HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.61-0.63). Within the last two decades, the rate for ischemic stroke declined by 20% (HR 0.81, 95% CI: 0.78-0.84), but increased almost as much for haemorrhagic stroke (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.01-1.29).
The long-term risk of heart failure, ischemic stroke, and death following onset of AF has decreased remarkably over the last three decades. Still, the threefold increased incidence of hospital-diagnosed AF during the same period is a major public health concern.
Department of Emergency Medicine, Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Internal Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: email@example.com.
Acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with death, end-stage renal disease, and heart failure in patients with coronary heart disease. This study investigated the association between AKI and long-term risk of stroke.
50,244 patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Sweden between 2000 and 2008 were identified from the SWEDEHEART registry. After exclusions 23,584 patients without prior stroke who underwent elective, primary, isolated, CABG were included. AKI was categorized according to absolute increases in postoperative creatinine values compared with preoperative values: stage 1, 0.3-0.5 mg/dL (26-44 µmol/L); stage 2, 0.5-1.0mg/dL (44-88 µmol/L); and stage 3, >1.0 mg/dL (=88 µmol/L). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for stroke. There were 1156 (4.9%) strokes during a mean follow-up of 4.1 years. After adjustment for confounders, HRs (95% CIs) for stroke in AKI stages 1, 2 and 3 were 1.12 (0.89-1.39), 1.31 (1.04-1.66) and 1.31 (0.92-1.87), respectively, compared with no AKI. This association disappeared after taking death into account in competing risk analysis. There was a significant association between AKI and stroke in men (HR: 1.26 [1.05-1.50]) but not in women (HR: 1.07 [0.75-1.53]), and in younger (
The objective of this study was to evaluate the added predictive ability of the CHA(2)DS(2)VASc prediction rule for stroke and death in a nonanticoagulated population of patients with atrial fibrillation.
We included 1603 nonanticoagulated patients with incident atrial fibrillation from a Danish prospective cohort study of 57 053 middle-aged men and women. The Net Reclassification Improvement was calculated as a measure to estimate any overall improvement in reclassification with the CHA(2)DS(2)VASc sore as an alternative to the CHADS(2) score. After 1-year follow-up, crude incidence rates were 3.4 per 100 person-years for stroke and 13.6 for death. After a mean follow-up of 5.4 years (± 3.7 years), the crude incidence rates for stroke and death were 1.9 and 5.6, respectively. During the entire observation period, the c-statistics and negative predictive values were similar for both risk scores. The Net Reclassification Improvement analysis showed that 1 of 10 reclassified atrial fibrillation patients would have been upgraded correctly using the CHA(2)DS(2)VASc score.
Both the CHADS(2) as well as the CHA(2)DS(2)VASc risk score can exclude a large proportion of patients from having high risk of stroke or death. However, using the CHA(2)DS(2)VASc risk score, fewer patients will fulfill the criterion for low risk (and are truly low risk for thromboembolism). For every 10 extra patients transferred to the treatment group at 5 years, using the CHA(2)DS(2)VASc risk score, 1 patient would have had a stroke that might have been avoided with effective treatment.
It is not clear if the downward trend in cardiovascular disease (CVD) observed for ages up to 85 years can be extended to the oldest old, those 85 years and above.
This nationwide cohort study presents age specific trends of CVD as well as for myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke separately for the period 1994 to 2010 for individuals 85 to 99 years old in Sweden. Data were extracted from national registries. All analyses were based on one-year age- and sex- specific figures. The risk for CVD increased with every age above 85 years although the rate of increase leveled off with age. Over time, the risk for CVD and MI decreased for all ages, and for stroke for ages up to 89 years. However, the risk of MI increased until around 2001 in all age groups and both sexes but decreased after that. The overall mortality improved for all outcomes over the period 1994 to 2010, so did the survival within 28 days from an event. The average annual decline in mortality over all ages, 85 and above was 3% for MI, 2% for stroke and for 2% CVD. Corresponding figures for ages 60-84 was 4% for each of MI, stroke and CVD. The results were similar for men and women.
Improvements in CVD risks observed among ages up to 85 years appear to have extended also to ages above 85 years, even if the rate of improvement plateaued with age. The improvements in survival for all ages up to 99 years give no support to the hypothesis that more fragile individuals reach higher ages. Additional research is needed to find out if improvement in survival can be seen also for the second and third event of CVD, stroke and MI.
To study the dynamics of basic epidemiological sex- and age-related indices in the Russian Federation for 2009-2012. MATERIAL AND METHODS. The regions (administrative units, cities or city regions) with the population from 100 000 to 200 000 people were selected. The total population was 10 373 279 people. The indices were evaluated using the uniform method developed by the National stroke association.
Incidence and fatality in men and women older than 25 years and able-bodied people (25-59 years) was analyzed using European standards.
The incidence of stroke decreased regardless of sex and age from 2010 to 2012. There was a trend towards the decrease in fatality in men and women older than 25 years. Incidence and fatality were lower in women compared to men.
Depression after stroke has been associated with increased mortality, but little is known about this association among very old people.
A population-based study among people =85 years of age was conducted in northern Sweden and Finland, comprising cross-sectional assessments and subsequent survival data. The 452 individuals who had completed the Geriatric Depression Scale-15 assessment were selected. Depression was defined as a score of =5 on the geriatric depression scale.
Of those with a history of stroke, 38 of 88 (43.2%) people were depressed, and 11 of the 38 (28.9%) were treated with antidepressants, compared with 91 of 364 (25.0%) depressed (P=0.001) and 17 of 91 (18.7%) treated with antidepressants among those without stroke. Having a history of stroke and ongoing depression was associated with increased 5-year mortality compared with having only stroke (hazard ratio, 1.90; confidence interval, 1.15-3.13), having only depression (hazard ratio, 1.59; confidence interval, 1.03-2.45), and compared with having neither stroke nor depression (hazard ratio, 2.50; confidence interval, 1.69-3.69). Having only stroke without depression did not increase mortality compared with having neither stroke nor depression.
A history of stroke was associated with increased mortality among very old people but only among those who were also depressed. Depression seemed to be underdiagnosed and undertreated.
To evaluate the effect of lipid-lowering therapy (LLT) in primary prevention on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and death in type 1 diabetes.
We used the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR) to perform a propensity score-based study. Propensity scores for treatment with LLT were calculated from 32 baseline clinical and socioeconomic variables. The propensity score was used to estimate the effect of LLT in the overall cohort (by stratification). We estimated risk of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in individuals with and without LLT using Cox regression. A total of 24,230 individuals included in 2006-2008 NDR with type 1 diabetes without a history of CVD were followed until 31 December 2012; 18,843 were untreated and 5,387 treated with LLT (97% statins). The mean follow-up was 6.0 years.
The propensity score allowed balancing of all 32 covariates, with no differences between treated and untreated after accounting for propensity score. Hazard ratios (HRs) for treated versus untreated were as follows: cardiovascular death 0.60 (95% CI 0.50-0.72), all-cause death 0.56 (0.48-0.64), fatal/nonfatal stroke 0.56 (0.46-0.70), fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction 0.78 (0.66-0.92), fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease 0.85 (0.74-0.97), and fatal/nonfatal CVD 0.77 (0.69-0.87).
This observational study shows that LLT is associated with 22-44% reduction in the risk of CVD and cardiovascular death among individuals with type 1 diabetes without history of CVD and underlines the importance of primary prevention with LLT to reduce cardiovascular risk in type 1 diabetes.
Previous studies have found higher stroke case fatality in patients admitted to the hospital on weekends compared to weekdays, but the reasons for this association are not known.
This was a cohort study using data from the Registry of the Canadian Stroke Network. We included consecutive patients with acute stroke or TIA seen in the emergency department or admitted to the hospital at 11 stroke centers in Ontario, Canada, between July 1, 2003, and March 30, 2008 (n = 20,657). We compared in-hospital stroke care and 7-day all-cause stroke case fatality rates between patients seen on weekends and weekdays, with adjustment for stroke severity and other baseline factors.
Overall rates of hospital presentation were lower on weekends compared to weekdays, with lower rates of weekend presentation among individuals with minor stroke and TIA compared to those with more severe strokes. Stroke care, including admission to a stroke unit, neuroimaging, and dysphagia screening, was similar in those treated on weekends and weekdays. All-cause 7-day fatality rates were higher in patients seen on weekends compared to weekdays (8.1% vs 7.0%), even after adjustment for age, sex, stroke severity, and comorbid conditions (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.25).
Stroke fatality is higher with weekend compared to weekday admission, even after adjustment for case mix.
Comment In: Neurology. 2011 Aug 16;77(7):700-1; author reply 70121844529
Reports of an obesity paradox have led to uncertainty about secondary prevention in obese patients with stroke. The paradox is disputed and has been claimed to be an artifact due to selection bias.
To determine whether the obesity paradox in stroke is real or an artificial finding due to selection bias.
We studied survival after stroke in relation to body mass index (BMI, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared). To overcome selection bias, we studied only deaths caused by the index stroke on the assumption that death by stroke reported on a death certificate was due to the index stroke if death occurred within the first month poststroke. We used the Danish Stroke Register, containing information on all hospital admissions for stroke in Denmark from 2003 to 2012, and the Danish Registry of Causes of Death. The study included all registered Danes (n?=?71?617) for whom information was available on BMI (n?=?53?812), age, sex, civil status, stroke severity, stroke subtype, a predefined cardiovascular profile, and socioeconomic status.
The independent relation between BMI and death by the index stroke within the first week or month by calculating hazard ratios in multivariate Cox regression analysis and multiple imputation for cases for whom information on BMI was missing.
Of the 71?617 patients, 7878 (11%) had died within the first month; of these, stroke was the cause of death of 5512 (70%). Of the patients for whom information on BMI was available, 9.7% were underweight, 39.0% were of normal weight, 34.5% were overweight, and 16.8% were obese. Body mass index was inversely related to mean age at stroke onset (P?
To develop a cardiovascular risk model simulating different clinical settings using a staged approach.
Using data from 27,477 men and women from the Norwegian Tromsø Study in 1986-1987 and 1994-1995, Cox regression models for either myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke combined with a similar model for the competing event a risk model that assess ten-year risk of MI and stroke was developed. Explanatory variables (questions, simple examinations and blood samples) were added gradually. The model was validated using Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the Brier score, c-index, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI).
In total, 1,298 events of MI and 769 events of stroke were registered. For MI the model showed excellent discrimination in each step with c-index from 0.833 to 0.946. For stroke the c-index ranged between 0.817 and 0.898. IDI showed significant increases in discrimination. The Brier scores and goodness of fit test showed well calibrated models in all steps for all sex- and end-point specific models (p>0.05).
Although the predictive and discriminative ability of the models increased with each step, even the simplest model containing only data from questions or blood samples alone yielded valid estimates of cardiovascular risk.