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A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature268259
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2015 Jun;79:100-16
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jun-2015
Author
Osiris A Valdez Banda
Floris Goerlandt
Jakub Montewka
Pentti Kujala
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2015 Jun;79:100-16
Date
Jun-2015
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Accidents - statistics & numerical data
Cold Climate
Finland
Models, Theoretical
North Sea
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Safety - statistics & numerical data
Seasons
Ships - statistics & numerical data
Sweden
Abstract
Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development.
PubMed ID
25819212 View in PubMed
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Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature282144
Source
Mar Pollut Bull. 2016 Jul 15;108(1-2):242-62
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jul-15-2016
Author
Osiris A Valdez Banda
Floris Goerlandt
Vladimir Kuzmin
Pentti Kujala
Jakub Montewka
Source
Mar Pollut Bull. 2016 Jul 15;108(1-2):242-62
Date
Jul-15-2016
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Bayes Theorem
Finland
Humans
Ice Cover
Models, Theoretical
Oceans and Seas
Petroleum Pollution - prevention & control
Risk Management
Seasons
Ships
Sweden
Abstract
The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.
PubMed ID
27207023 View in PubMed
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