Previous attempts to study the 1918-1919 flu in three small communities in central Manitoba have used both three-community population-based and single-community agent-based models. These studies identified critical factors influencing epidemic spread, but they also left important questions unanswered. The objective of this project was to design a more realistic agent-based model that would overcome limitations of earlier models and provide new insights into these outstanding questions.
The new model extends the previous agent-based model to three communities so that results can be compared to those from the population-based model. Sensitivity testing was conducted, and the new model was used to investigate the influence of seasonal settlement and mobility patterns, the geographic heterogeneity of the observed 1918-1919 epidemic in Manitoba, and other questions addressed previously.
Results confirm outcomes from the population-based model that suggest that (a) social organization and mobility strongly influence the timing and severity of epidemics and (b) the impact of the epidemic would have been greater if it had arrived in the summer rather than the winter. New insights from the model suggest that the observed heterogeneity among communities in epidemic impact was not unusual and would have been the expected outcome given settlement structure and levels of interaction among communities.
Application of an agent-based computer simulation has helped to better explain observed patterns of spread of the 1918-1919 flu epidemic in central Manitoba. Contrasts between agent-based and population-based models illustrate the advantages of agent-based models for the study of small populations.
This paper investigates the periodicity of the adult height of Swedish soldiers of the 18th and 19th centuries using spectral analysis. The height data are left truncated due to the enforcement of minimum height requirement. Hence, we use a truncated regression model using maximum likelihood estimation. We isolate the various frequency components, assess their importance, and perform sensitivity analysis by means of fitting several alternative models.
The paper presents a snapshot of the city-village connections in the city of Yakutsk and an anthropological account of the dynamics of the relationship between the city and villages around it. Demographic changes that started in the 1980s, prompted by a decline in agriculture, initiated an exodus of the rural population from the countryside into the city of Yakutsk. This paper explores the migration dynamics of the rural population to the city. Two conflicting aspects of the relationship between the city and village are the focus of this paper: treating village people as close kin and as outsiders. I examine the image of ulusnik [a villager] and consider rationales behind the stigma attached to it and a social role of the Other which is imposed on the people from the countryside.
In this article, we analyze fertility control in a rural population characterized by natural fertility, using survival analysis on a longitudinal data set at the individual level combined with food prices. Landless and semilandless families responded strongly to short-term economic stress stemming from changes in prices. The fertility response, both to moderate and large changes in food prices, was the strongest within six months after prices changed in the fall, which means that the response was deliberate. People foresaw bad times and planned their fertility accordingly. The result highlights the importance of deliberate control of the timing of childbirth before the fertility transition, not in order to achieve a certain family size but, as in this case, to reduce the negative impacts of short-term economic stress.
This study examines the effects of early life socioeconomic and residential conditions on adult mortality. The family and residential details of children living in rural areas of Quebec, Canada, in 1901 were linked to their subsequent ages at death using a database compiling information from the 1901 Canadian Census and Quebec vital statistics registers. Survival analysis results suggest that males raised on a farm and in a household owned by their father had lower mortality after the age of fifty than other males from rural areas. Chances for survival at older ages were not equal, however, among males whose father was a farmer. Most notably, males raised on a larger farmstead, an indicator of a higher socioeconomic status, experienced lower risk of mortality than those raised by farmers owning fewer acres. Results were widely different for females, who did not gain an advantage from being raised on a farm, wealthy or not, regardless of homeownership, but instead from having a literate father. Accounting for selection bias and shared frailty among brothers served to enhance the significance and effect size of acreage wealth and of other early life factors in the prediction of male adult mortality risk. This study provides evidence that early life effects on later life health and mortality could often be underestimated, due to a failure to account for selection and unobserved heterogeneity.
Two generations of a family who lived in mid-nineteenth rural Sweden are described. Domestic violence was a common feature in the first generation family. The salient feature there was undoubtedly the incestuous father-daughter relationships. The way incest appeared in Sweden about 150 years ago, the role of local authorities, and the serious consequences to those victimized is analyzed with reference to both the cultural context of that time and to modern theories of incest. Seemingly puzzling violence committed by a second generation family member is related to the domestic violence in the previous generation. Due to the extraordinary character of the incest cases and the specific church council sessions in which the incest case was treated, aspects of family life normally hidden behind curtains of conventions were made public. Reaction patterns drawn from this case indicate a patriarchal system of oppression and badly-directed considerations.
Various studies conducted over the past three decades have highlighted the social, political, and economic impact that women homesteaders had on the western prairie region. Their involvement on the family homestead, whether taking part in subsistence and domestic chores or as workers in the fields, was a necessary aspect of the development and success of family farming and an agriculture-based economy in Western Canada. This paper reveals details of another aspect of family labor that often fell on the shoulders of women, that is, the provision of medical care needed to ensure the health of themselves, their spouses, and their children. Given the labor-intensive nature of the frontier lifestyle, the associated physical hazards, the number of disease-susceptible children in the region, and the scarcity of medical institutions and personnel, women were often called upon by their families and neighbors to deal with outbreaks of disease, injuries, and health crises. Using survey data collected by the Saskatchewan Archives Board in 1955 to illustrate the nature of the work performed, this paper argues that women's health care labor efforts were vital to the preservation of homesteading families in the prairie region.
Is there a trade-off between fertility and longevity? A comparative study of women from three large historical databases accounting for mortality selection.
Frontier populations provide exceptional opportunities to test the hypothesis of a trade-off between fertility and longevity. In such populations, mechanisms favoring reproduction usually find fertile ground, and if these mechanisms reduce longevity, demographers should observe higher postreproductive mortality among highly fertile women. We test this hypothesis using complete female reproductive histories from three large demographic databases: the Registre de la population du Québec ancien (Université de Montréal), which covers the first centuries of settlement in Quebec; the BALSAC database (Université du Québec à Chicoutimi), including comprehensive records for the Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean (SLSJ) in Quebec in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries; and the Utah Population Database (University of Utah), including all individuals who experienced a vital event on the Mormon Trail and their descendants. Together, the three samples allow for comparisons over time and space, and represent one of the largest set of natural fertility cohorts used to simultaneously assess reproduction and longevity. Using survival analyses, we found a negative influence of parity and a positive influence of age at last child on postreproductive survival in the three populations, as well as a significant interaction between these two variables. The effect sizes of all these parameters were remarkably similar in the three samples. However, we found little evidence that early fertility affects postreproductive survival. The use of Heckman's procedure assessing the impact of mortality selection during reproductive ages did not appreciably alter these results. We conclude our empirical investigation by discussing the advantages of comparative approaches.
Naturally occurring isotopic systems, such as strontium (Sr) and lead (Pb), are very useful for characterizing different sources and to produce background information. Norwegian teeth from the Medieval era have 206Pb/204Pb ratios between 18.8 and 18.2, in comparison with present day ratios of between 18.0 and 17.6 showing the impact of Pb from modern industrialization and from traffic. Sr analyses of Medieval teeth show that an individual living in a coastal town on the west coast of Norway can easily be distinguished from one in a rural area at that time. The Sr signature shows that Medieval people lived on local products while present people to a greater degree live on imported or domestic industrially processed food. Medieval and modern teeth from one site give similar Pb signatures and concentrations indicating no increase in pollution over time. However, the impact of industrial pollution can be seen from Pb analyses on contemporary teeth, so that the method can be used to monitor emission of heavy metals from local industry. Whilst the Pb and Sr natural isotopic systems individually provide valuable information, a combination of the two techniques is a very powerful tool in environmental and archaeological research.
