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Accuracy of actuarial procedures for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk may vary across ethnicity.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature30268
Source
Sex Abuse. 2004 Apr;16(2):107-20
Publication Type
Article
Date
Apr-2004
Author
Niklas Långström
Author Affiliation
Centre for Violence Prevention, Karolinska Institutet, P.O. Box 23000, S-104 35 Stockholm, Sweden. niklas.langstrom@cns.ki.se
Source
Sex Abuse. 2004 Apr;16(2):107-20
Date
Apr-2004
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Actuarial Analysis
Adult
Africa - ethnology
Analysis of Variance
Asia - ethnology
Child
Child Abuse, Sexual - ethnology - statistics & numerical data
Cross-Sectional Studies
Europe - ethnology
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Predictive value of tests
Questionnaires - standards
Recurrence - prevention & control
Reproducibility of Results
Research Design
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Risk factors
Sex Offenses - ethnology - statistics & numerical data
Sexual Behavior - ethnology - statistics & numerical data
Sweden - epidemiology
Abstract
Little is known about whether the accuracy of tools for assessment of sexual offender recidivism risk holds across ethnic minority offenders. I investigated the predictive validity across ethnicity for the RRASOR and the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment procedures in a national cohort of all adult male sex offenders released from prison in Sweden 1993-1997. Subjects ordered out of Sweden upon release from prison were excluded and remaining subjects (N = 1303) divided into three subgroups based on citizenship. Eighty-three percent of the subjects were of Nordic ethnicity, and non-Nordic citizens were either of non-Nordic European (n = 49, hereafter called European) or African Asian descent (n = 128). The two tools were equally accurate among Nordic and European sexual offenders for the prediction of any sexual and any violent nonsexual recidivism. In contrast, neither measure could differentiate African Asian sexual or violent recidivists from nonrecidivists. Compared to European offenders, AfricanAsian offenders had more often sexually victimized a nonrelative or stranger, had higher Static-99 scores, were younger, more often single, and more often homeless. The results require replication, but suggest that the promising predictive validity seen with some risk assessment tools may not generalize across offender ethnicity or migration status. More speculatively, different risk factors or causal chains might be involved in the development or persistence of offending among minority or immigrant sexual abusers.
PubMed ID
15208896 View in PubMed
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Acute and long-term increase in fracture risk after hospitalization for stroke.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature195446
Source
Stroke. 2001 Mar;32(3):702-6
Publication Type
Article
Date
Mar-2001
Author
J. Kanis
A. Oden
O. Johnell
Author Affiliation
Center for Metabolic Bone Diseases (World Health Organization Collaborating Center), University of Sheffield Medical School (UK). w.j.pontefract@sheffield.ac.uk
Source
Stroke. 2001 Mar;32(3):702-6
Date
Mar-2001
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Acute Disease
Age Distribution
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Comorbidity
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Fractures, Bone - epidemiology
Hip Fractures - epidemiology
Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Incidence
Male
Middle Aged
Poisson Distribution
Proportional Hazards Models
Risk
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Sex Distribution
Stroke - epidemiology - therapy
Sweden - epidemiology
Time
Abstract
The aims of this study were to determine the magnitude of the increase in fracture risk after hospitalization for stroke, and in particular to determine the time course of this risk.
The records of the Swedish register of patients admitted during 1987-1996 were examined to identify all patients who were admitted to the hospital for stroke. Patients were followed for subsequent hospitalizations for hip and all fractures combined. We analyzed 16.3 million hospitalizations, from which 273 288 individuals with stroke were identified. A Poisson model was used to determine the absolute risk of subsequent fractures and the risk compared with that of the general population.
After hospitalization for stroke, there was a >7-fold increase in fracture risk, including that for hip fracture within the first year after hospitalization for stroke. Thereafter, fracture risk declined toward, but did not attain, the baseline risk except in men and women aged >/=80 years.
The high incidence of new fractures within the first year of hospitalization for stroke suggests that such patients should be preferentially targeted for treatment. It is possible that short courses of treatment at the time of stroke would provide important therapeutic dividends.
PubMed ID
11239190 View in PubMed
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Adult life after childhood cancer in Scandinavia: diabetes mellitus following treatment for cancer in childhood.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature105033
Source
Eur J Cancer. 2014 Apr;50(6):1169-75
Publication Type
Article
Date
Apr-2014
Author
Anna Sällfors Holmqvist
Jørgen H Olsen
Klaus Kaae Andersen
Sofie de Fine Licht
Lars Hjorth
Stanislaw Garwicz
Christian Moëll
Harald Anderson
Finn Wesenberg
Laufey Tryggvadottir
Nea Malila
John D Boice
Henrik Hasle
Jeanette Falck Winther
Author Affiliation
Paediatric Oncology and Haematology, Skåne University Hospital, Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden. Electronic address: anna.sallfors-holmqvist@med.lu.se.
Source
Eur J Cancer. 2014 Apr;50(6):1169-75
Date
Apr-2014
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adolescent
Child
Child, Preschool
Cohort Studies
Comorbidity
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 - diagnosis - epidemiology
Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 - diagnosis - epidemiology
Female
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Male
Middle Aged
Multivariate Analysis
Neoplasms - classification - epidemiology - therapy
Proportional Hazards Models
Registries - statistics & numerical data
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Risk factors
Scandinavia - epidemiology
Survivors - statistics & numerical data
Young Adult
Abstract
An increased risk for diabetes mellitus (DM) adds significantly to the burden of late complications in childhood cancer survivors. Complications of DM may be prevented by using appropriate screening. It is, therefore, important to better characterise the reported increased risk for DM in a large population-based setting.
From the national cancer registries of the five Nordic countries, a cohort of 32,903 1-year survivors of cancer diagnosed before the age of 20 between start of cancer registration in the 1940s and 1950s through 2008 was identified; 212,393 comparison subjects of the same age, gender and country were selected from national population registers. Study subjects were linked to the national hospital registers. Absolute excess risks (AERs) and standardised hospitalisation rate ratios (SHRRs) were calculated.
DM was diagnosed in 496 childhood cancer survivors, yielding an overall SHRR of 1.6 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.5-1.8) and an AER of 43 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from approximately 20 extra cases of DM in ages 0-19 to more than 100 extra cases per 100,000 person-years in ages > or =50. The relative risks for DM were significantly increased after Wilms' tumour (SHRR, 2.9), leukaemia (2.0), CNS neoplasms (1.8), germ-cell neoplasms (1.7), malignant bone tumours (1.7) and Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.6). The risk for DM type 2 was slightly higher than that for type 1.
Childhood cancer survivors are at increased risk for DM, with absolute risks increasing throughout life. These findings underscore the need for preventive interventions and prolonged follow-up of childhood cancer survivors.
PubMed ID
24507548 View in PubMed
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Alcohol and driving factors in collision risk.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature141395
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):1538-44
Publication Type
Article
Date
Nov-2010
Author
Robert E Mann
Gina Stoduto
Evelyn Vingilis
Mark Asbridge
Christine M Wickens
Anca Ialomiteanu
Justin Sharpley
Reginald G Smart
Author Affiliation
Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Social and Epidemiological Research, 33 Russell Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 2S1, Canada. robert mann@camh.net
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):1538-44
Date
Nov-2010
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Alcoholic Intoxication - blood - epidemiology
Alcoholism - blood - epidemiology
Cross-Sectional Studies
Female
Health Surveys
Humans
Male
Marital status
Middle Aged
Ontario
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Young Adult
Abstract
In this study we examine the effect of several alcohol-related measures on self-reported collision involvement within the previous 12 months while controlling for demographic and driving exposure factors based on a large representative sample of adults in Ontario. Data are based on the 2002-2006 Centre for Addiction and Mental Health Monitor, an ongoing cross-sectional telephone survey of Ontario adults aged 18 and older (n=8542). Three logistic regressions of self-reported collision involvement in the past 12 months were implemented, each consisting of 3 steps: (1) demographic factors and driving exposure entered, (2) driving after drinking within the last 12 months entered, and (3) one of three alcohol-related measures (AUDIT subscales of alcohol consumption, dependence and problems) entered. In each step, measures from the preceding step were included in order to control for those variables. In Step 1, age (OR=0.989), region overall, Central East region (OR=0.71), West region (OR=0.67), and North region (OR=0.67), income overall and those who did not state income (OR=0.64), marital status overall and those married or living common law (OR=0.60), and number of kilometers driven in a typical week (OR=1.00) were found to be significant predictors of collision involvement. The analyses revealed that driving after drinking was a significant predictor of collision involvement in Step 2 (OR=1.51) and each of the Step 3 models (ORs=1.52, 1.37, 1.34). The AUDIT Consumption subscale was not a significant factor in collision risk. Both the AUDIT Dependence and AUDIT Problems subscales were significantly related to collision risk (ORs=1.13 and 1.10, respectively). These findings suggest that alcohol, in addition to its effects on collision risk through its acute impairment of driving skills, may also affect collision risk through processes involved when individuals develop alcohol problems or alcohol dependence.
PubMed ID
20728600 View in PubMed
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Analysing and interpreting competing risk data.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature167956
Source
Stat Med. 2007 Mar 15;26(6):1360-7
Publication Type
Article
Date
Mar-15-2007
Author
Melania Pintilie
Author Affiliation
Ontario Cancer Institute, Clinical Study Coordination and Biostatistics, 610 University Ave, Fl. 15, Rm. 433, Toronto, Ont., Canada M5G 2M9. pintilie@uhnres.utoronto.ca
Source
Stat Med. 2007 Mar 15;26(6):1360-7
Date
Mar-15-2007
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Causality
Data Interpretation, Statistical
Humans
Ontario
Proportional Hazards Models
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Abstract
When competing risks are present, two types of analysis can be performed: modelling the cause specific hazard and modelling the hazard of the subdistribution. This paper contrasts these two methods and presents the benefits of each. The interpretation is specific to the analysis performed. When modelling the cause specific hazard, one performs the analysis under the assumption that the competing risks do not exist. This could be beneficial when, for example, the main interest is whether the treatment works in general. In modelling the hazard of the subdistribution, one incorporates the competing risks in the analysis. This analysis compares the observed incidence of the event of interest between groups. The latter analysis is specific to the structure of the observed data and it can be generalized only to another population with similar competing risks.
Notes
Comment In: Stat Med. 2007 Aug 15;26(18):3521-3; author reply 352317476646
Comment In: Stat Med. 2007 Aug 30;26(19):3676-9; author reply 3679-8017299738
PubMed ID
16900575 View in PubMed
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An epidemiologically-based needs assessment for stroke services.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature175167
Source
Chronic Dis Can. 2004 Summer-Fall;25(3-4):138-46
Publication Type
Article
Author
Duncan J W Hunter
Heather J Grant
Mark P H Purdue
Robert A Spasoff
John L Dorland
Nam Bains
Author Affiliation
Department of Community Health and Epidemiology, Abramsky Hall, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3A6. hunter@post.queensu.ca
Source
Chronic Dis Can. 2004 Summer-Fall;25(3-4):138-46
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adult
Delivery of Health Care - statistics & numerical data
Diagnostic Services - statistics & numerical data
Epidemiologic Studies
Evidence-Based Medicine
Feasibility Studies
Health Planning - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Needs Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Ontario - epidemiology
Population Surveillance
Preventive Health Services - statistics & numerical data
Registries
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Risk factors
Stroke - epidemiology - rehabilitation - therapy
Abstract
Stroke is amenable to the entire spectrum of health services, ranging from prevention of its risk factors, to the treatment of acute stroke and rehabilitation and palliation of stroke. The aim of this study was to determine the number of persons with the capacity to benefit from evidence-based effective stroke services. Population-based survey and registry data along with published, evidence-based recommendations for services were used to determine the number of persons in Eastern Ontario with stroke (including risk factors, acute stroke and chronic stroke) and their related need for services (including prevention programs, diagnostic services, treatment of acute stroke and rehabilitation). These estimates were then compared to the actual provision of these services. Estimates of the need for effective services exceeded the provision of all services with the exception of pharmacologic treatment for diabetes mellitus and carotid endarterectomy for acute stroke. The approach was able to identify both the under-provision and over-provision of evidence-based effective services for stroke. This study has shown that an epidemiologically-based needs assessment could be a useful basis for the planning of health services.
PubMed ID
15841854 View in PubMed
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Area-based differences in injury risks in a small Swedish municipality--Geographic and social differences.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature61403
Source
Inj Control Saf Promot. 2002 Mar;9(1):53-7
Publication Type
Article
Date
Mar-2002
Author
Karin Engström
Robert Ekman
Glenn Welander
Lucie Laflamme
Author Affiliation
Karolinska Institutet, Department of Public Health Sciences, Division of Social Medicine, National Institute of Public Health, Injury Prevention Program, Stockholm, Sweden. karin.engstrom@phs.ki.se
Source
Inj Control Saf Promot. 2002 Mar;9(1):53-7
Date
Mar-2002
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Cities - statistics & numerical data
Female
Geography
Humans
Male
Odds Ratio
Residence Characteristics - statistics & numerical data
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Sex Distribution
Social Class
Sweden - epidemiology
Time Factors
Wounds and Injuries - epidemiology
Abstract
The current study investigates the geographic and social differences in injury risks across living areas in a small semi-urban Swedish municipality. The study population consisted of all people living in the municipality during the years 1992-1996 (31,820, December 1996). Area comparisons were made based on data related to the municipality's 15 census districts and grouped according to the geographic location and three different social characteristics (proportion of unemployed, of low educated, or of people born outside Sweden). Injury data was gathered for the period 1992-1996 from two data sources: Sweden's National Hospital Discharge Register, and the local outpatient register. Three diagnosis groups were used: all injuries aggregated, traffic injuries and other unintentional injuries. Odds-ratios were calculated for males and females separately. There were no remarkable differences in injury risks between areas, whether compared on the basis of their geographic location or some of their socio-economic characteristics. These findings could be attributed to either a lack of sensitivity of the measures employed or the existence of a well-functioning safety promotion program in the municipality that impacts on injury risk distribution between areas. This, in turn, does not imply that members of underprivileged social groups are not in need of special support regardless of the area to which they belong.
PubMed ID
12462164 View in PubMed
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Are risk estimates biased in follow-up studies of psychosocial factors with low base-line participation?

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature133140
Source
BMC Public Health. 2011;11:539
Publication Type
Article
Date
2011
Author
Linda Kaerlev
Henrik A Kolstad
Ase Marie Hansen
Jane Frølund Thomsen
Anette Kærgaard
Reiner Rugulies
Sigurd Mikkelsen
Johan Hviid Andersen
Ole Mors
Matias B Grynderup
Jens Peter Bonde
Author Affiliation
Danish Ramazzini Centre, Department of Occupational Medicine, Aarhus University Hospital and Regional Hospital Herning, Aarhus C, Denmark. L.Kaerlev@dadlnet.dk
Source
BMC Public Health. 2011;11:539
Date
2011
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adult
Denmark
Female
Follow-Up Studies
Health Surveys
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Mood Disorders
Occupational Exposure - adverse effects
Outcome Assessment (Health Care) - statistics & numerical data
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Sample Size
Abstract
Low participation in population-based follow-up studies addressing psychosocial risk factors may cause biased estimation of health risk but the issue has seldom been examined. We compared risk estimates for selected health outcomes among respondents and the entire source population.
In a Danish cohort study of associations between psychosocial characteristics of the work environment and mental health, the source population of public service workers comprised 10,036 employees in 502 work units of which 4,489 participated (participation rate 45%). Data on the psychosocial work environment were obtained for each work unit by calculating the average of the employee self-reports. The average values were assigned all employees and non-respondent at the work unit. Outcome data on sick leave and prescription of antidepressant medication during the follow-up period (1.4.2007-31.12.2008) was obtained by linkage to national registries.
Respondents differed at baseline from non-respondents by gender, age, employment status, sick leave and hospitalization for affective disorders. However, risk estimates for sick leave and prescription of antidepressant medication, during follow-up, based on the subset of participants, did only differ marginally from risk estimates based upon the entire population.
We found no indications that low participation at baseline distorts the estimates of associations between the work unit level of psychosocial work environment and mental health outcomes during follow-up. These results may not be valid for other exposures or outcomes.
Notes
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PubMed ID
21736760 View in PubMed
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[ASSESSING THE RELIABILITY OF A PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS MORBIDITY RATE].

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature276883
Source
Tuberk Biolezni Legkih. 2010;(4):3-9
Publication Type
Article
Date
2010
Source
Tuberk Biolezni Legkih. 2010;(4):3-9
Date
2010
Language
Russian
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Health Services Research - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Humans - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Mortality - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Preventive Health Services - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Reproducibility of Results - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Russia - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Tuberculosis, Pulmonary - statistics & numerical data - methods - statistics & numerical data - epidemiology - diagnosis - mortality - prevention & control
Abstract
The reliability of a statistical mortality rate due to pulmonary tuberculosis was analyzed in 10 Russian Federation's subjects having the least rates. It was shown that its reliability might be objectively assessed by a method for complex analysis of the rates reflecting the population coverage of prophylactic examinations, the proportion of tuberculosis patients identified at their visits to health care facilities, and the pattern of patients with new-onset pulmonary tuberculosis. The reliability of this rate is mainly influ-enced by the prophylactic examination coverage of the population at increased risk for tuberculosis. Underidentification of patients with pulmonary tuberculosis leads to a discrepancy in the actual and statistical deaths from pulmonary tuberculosis with its underestimated values.
PubMed ID
27534018 View in PubMed
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Bayesian multiple testing procedures for hotspot identification.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature160960
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2007 Nov;39(6):1192-201
Publication Type
Article
Date
Nov-2007
Author
Luis F Miranda-Moreno
Aurélie Labbe
Liping Fu
Author Affiliation
Centre for Data and Analysis in Transportation, Economics Department, Université Laval, Québec G1K7P4, Canada. luis-f.miranda-moreno.1@ulaval.ca
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2007 Nov;39(6):1192-201
Date
Nov-2007
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Accidents, Traffic - prevention & control - statistics & numerical data
Bayes Theorem
Canada
Decision Support Techniques
Humans
Railroads
Risk Assessment - statistics & numerical data
Abstract
Ranking a group of candidate sites and selecting from it the high-risk locations or hotspots for detailed engineering study and countermeasure evaluation is the first step in a transport safety improvement program. Past studies have however mainly focused on the task of applying appropriate methods for ranking locations, with few focusing on the issue of how to define selection methods or threshold rules for hotspot identification. The primary goal of this paper is to introduce a multiple testing-based approach to the problem of selecting hotspots. Following the recent developments in the literature, two testing procedures are studied under a Bayesian framework: Bayesian test with weights (BTW) and a Bayesian test controlling for the posterior false discovery rate (FDR) or false negative rate (FNR). The hypotheses tests are implemented on the basis of two random effect or Bayesian models, namely, the hierarchical Poisson/Gamma or Negative Binomial model and the hierarchical Poisson/Lognormal model. A dataset of highway-railway grade crossings is used as an application example to illustrate the proposed procedures incorporating both the posterior distribution of accident frequency and the posterior distribution of ranks. Results on the effects of various decision parameters used in hotspot identification procedures are discussed.
PubMed ID
17920843 View in PubMed
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90 records – page 1 of 9.