We cross-validated two actuarial risk assessment tools, the RRASOR (R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999), in a retrospective follow-up (mean follow-up time = 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993-1997 (N = 1,400, all men, age > or =18 years). File-based data were collected by a researcher blind to the outcome (registered criminal recidivism), and individual risk factors as well as complete instrument characteristics were explored. Both the RRASOR and the Static-99 showed similar and moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions whereas the Static-99 exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for the prediction of any violent recidivism as compared to the RRASOR. Although particularly the Static-99 proved moderately robust as an actuarial measure of recidivism risk among sexual offenders in Sweden, both procedures may need further evaluation, for example, with sex offender subpopulations differing ethnically or with respect to offense characteristics. The usefulness of actuarial methods for the assessment of sex offender recidivism risk is discussed in the context of current practice.
Mixed findings have been made with regard to the long-term predictive validity of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) on criminal behaviour in samples of substance abusers. A longitudinal record-linkage study of a cohort of 1052 drug abusers admitted 1977-1995 was undertaken. Subjects were recruited from a detoxification and short-term rehabilitation unit in Lund, Sweden, and followed through criminal justice registers from their first treatment episode to death or to the year 2004. In a ML multinomial random effects regression, subjects diagnosed with antisocial personality disorders were 2.16 times more likely to be charged with theft only (p
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Department of Drug Policy, PO Box 4404, Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway; Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: firstname.lastname@example.org.
The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs.
Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus.
The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors.
Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications.
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence.
Pre-operative patient characteristics and intraoperative variables were recorded for 224 patients undergoing general and vascular surgery between 26 October and 17 December 2009. Major complications were evaluated during a 30-day follow-up. The relationship between Surgical Apgar Score and major complication was analysed using ?(2)-tests and the relative risk between different scoring patient groups was analysed.
The study showed a strong correlation between the Surgical Apgar Score and major complication (P
OBJECTIVES: Patients diagnosed with RA have been at an increased risk of many cancers and at a decreased risk of some cancers. We planned to revisit the theme by using a nation-wide population of RA patients. METHODS: An RA research database was constructed by identifying hospitalized RA patients from the Hospital Discharge Register and cancer patients from the Cancer Registry. Earlier studies from Sweden have shown that some 75% of RA patients have been hospitalized at some time point. Follow-up of 42,262 RA patients was carried out from year 1980 to 2004 including separate follow-ups for shorter intervals. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for cancer in RA patients by comparing with subjects without RA. RESULTS: Many cancers were in excess in RA patients, especially Hodgkin disease, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and squamous cell skin cancer; a novel association was found for non-thyroid endocrine tumours. Colon, rectal and endometrial cancers were decreased in RA patients. When RA patients were first hospitalized after 1999, the SIRs for melanoma, squamous cell skin and upper aerodigestive tract cancers and for leukaemia were increased compared with previous periods. CONCLUSIONS: This study, the largest so far published, quantified the increased and decreased site-specific risks of cancer in RA patients. The recent increases in the risks of squamous cell skin and upper aerodigestive tract cancers, melanoma and leukaemia call for continuous vigilance and recording of changes in treatment.
BACKGROUND: The use of cosmetics is rising, and adverse reactions to these products are increasing. In Sweden, the Medical Products Agency (MPA) keeps a voluntary reporting system for such adverse reactions. However, the reporting is sparse, consisting almost only of cases with test-proven allergic contact dermatitis, thus under-reporting the more common irritant reactions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to try to improve the reporting system. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Dermatologists at 3 dermatology departments used a structured protocol during the clinical investigation of 151 consecutive patients reporting skin reactions to cosmetics. The protocol included symptoms, signs, affected body site, suspected products, and final diagnosis after patch testing. Based on clinical data and patch test results, a causality assessment for each product was made according to a protocol used at the MPA. Results: Allergic contact dermatitis was found in 28% of the patients, and irritant reactions were equally common at 27%. CONCLUSIONS: Using this structured protocol, the cases of irritant dermatitis were also reported, and it is recommended that such a protocol is used as a standard to improve the reporting of adverse reactions to skin care products.
Patients with early-onset dementia are a significantly under-recognized subgroup of patients with an increasing prevalence. Epidemiological studies are limited and studies of modifiable risk factors, such as physical fitness, are lacking. We aimed to investigate the associations between cardiovascular fitness individually and in combination with cognitive performance at age 18 and risk of early-onset dementia and mild cognitive impairment later in life. We performed a population-based cohort study of over 1.1 million Swedish, 18-year-old, male conscripts, who underwent conscription exams between 1968 and 2005. These males were then followed for up to 42 years. Objective data on cardiovascular fitness and cognitive performance were collected during conscription exams and were subsequently linked with hospital registries to calculate later risk of early-onset dementia and mild cognitive impairment using Cox proportional hazards models controlling for several confounders. The scores from the exams were divided into tertiles (low, medium, high) for the analyses. The mean follow-up time for the analyses was 25.7 years (standard deviation: 9.3) and the median was 27 years. In total, 30 195 315 person-years of follow-up were included in the study. In fully adjusted models, both low cardiovascular fitness and cognitive performance (compared to high) at age 18 were associated with increased risk for future early-onset dementia (cardiovascular fitness, n = 662 events: hazard ratio 2.49, 95%, confidence interval 1.87-3.32; cognitive performance, n = 657 events: hazard ratio 4.11, 95%, confidence interval 3.19-5.29) and mild cognitive impairment (cardiovascular fitness, n = 213 events: hazard ratio 3.57, 95%, confidence interval 2.23-5.74; cognitive performance, n = 212 events: hazard ratio 3.23, 95%, confidence interval 2.12-4.95). Poor performance on both cardiovascular fitness and cognitive tests was associated with a >7-fold (hazard ratio 7.34, 95%, confidence interval 5.08-10.58) and a >8-fold (hazard ratio 8.44, 95%, confidence interval 4.64-15.37) increased risk of early-onset dementia and early-onset mild cognitive impairment, respectively. In conclusion, lower cardiovascular fitness and cognitive performance in early adulthood were associated with an increased risk of early-onset dementia and mild cognitive impairment later in life, and the greatest risks were observed for individuals with a combination of low cardiovascular fitness and low cognitive performance.
Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the soil:water distribution coefficient (Kd).
Despite validated guidelines, management of mild head injury (MHI) is still associated with excessive computed tomography (CT) scanning. Reports concerning serum levels of S100B have shown promise concerning safe reduction in CT scanning but clinical validation and actual impact on patient management is unclear. In 2007, S100B was introduced into emergency department (ED) clinical management routines in Halmstad, Sweden. MHI patients with low (
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