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Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: a cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature192052
Source
Law Hum Behav. 2001 Dec;25(6):629-45
Publication Type
Article
Date
Dec-2001
Author
G. Sjöstedt
N. Långström
Author Affiliation
Division of Forensic Psychiatry, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. gabrielle.sjostedt@neurotec.ki.se
Source
Law Hum Behav. 2001 Dec;25(6):629-45
Date
Dec-2001
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Actuarial Analysis - methods
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Follow-Up Studies
Forensic Psychiatry - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Regression Analysis
Reproducibility of Results
Retrospective Studies
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk factors
Sensitivity and specificity
Sex Offenses
Sweden
Abstract
We cross-validated two actuarial risk assessment tools, the RRASOR (R. K. Hanson, 1997) and the Static-99 (R. K. Hanson & D. Thornton, 1999), in a retrospective follow-up (mean follow-up time = 3.69 years) of all sex offenders released from Swedish prisons during 1993-1997 (N = 1,400, all men, age > or =18 years). File-based data were collected by a researcher blind to the outcome (registered criminal recidivism), and individual risk factors as well as complete instrument characteristics were explored. Both the RRASOR and the Static-99 showed similar and moderate predictive accuracy for sexual reconvictions whereas the Static-99 exhibited a significantly higher accuracy for the prediction of any violent recidivism as compared to the RRASOR. Although particularly the Static-99 proved moderately robust as an actuarial measure of recidivism risk among sexual offenders in Sweden, both procedures may need further evaluation, for example, with sex offender subpopulations differing ethnically or with respect to offense characteristics. The usefulness of actuarial methods for the assessment of sex offender recidivism risk is discussed in the context of current practice.
PubMed ID
11771638 View in PubMed
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Antisocial personality disorder as a predictor of criminal behaviour in a longitudinal study of a cohort of abusers of several classes of drugs: relation to type of substance and type of crime.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature93660
Source
Addict Behav. 2008 Jun;33(6):799-811
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jun-2008
Author
Fridell Mats
Hesse Morten
Jaeger Mads Meier
Kühlhorn Eckart
Author Affiliation
Department of Psychology, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Source
Addict Behav. 2008 Jun;33(6):799-811
Date
Jun-2008
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adult
Amphetamine-Related Disorders - psychology
Antisocial Personality Disorder - psychology
Crime
Criminal Psychology
Female
Fraud
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Medical Record Linkage
Opioid-Related Disorders - psychology
Probability
Regression Analysis
Risk Assessment - methods
Substance-Related Disorders - psychology
Sweden
Theft
Time
Violence
Abstract
Mixed findings have been made with regard to the long-term predictive validity of antisocial personality disorder (ASPD) on criminal behaviour in samples of substance abusers. A longitudinal record-linkage study of a cohort of 1052 drug abusers admitted 1977-1995 was undertaken. Subjects were recruited from a detoxification and short-term rehabilitation unit in Lund, Sweden, and followed through criminal justice registers from their first treatment episode to death or to the year 2004. In a ML multinomial random effects regression, subjects diagnosed with antisocial personality disorders were 2.16 times more likely to be charged with theft only (p
PubMed ID
18258375 View in PubMed
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Assessing the effect of public health information by incentivised risk estimation: An example on Swedish snus.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature299929
Source
Int J Drug Policy. 2018 04; 54:51-57
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
04-2018
Author
Daniel Bergsvik
Ole Rogeberg
Author Affiliation
Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Department of Drug Policy, PO Box 4404, Nydalen, 0403 Oslo, Norway; Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: daniel.bergsvik@fhi.no.
Source
Int J Drug Policy. 2018 04; 54:51-57
Date
04-2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Keywords
Cigarette Smoking - adverse effects
Female
Health education
Humans
Male
Program Evaluation - methods
Reward
Risk Assessment - methods
Sweden
Tobacco, Smokeless - adverse effects
Abstract
The provision of accurate information on health damaging behaviours and products is a widely accepted and widespread governmental task. It is easily mismanaged. This study demonstrates a simple method which can help to evaluate whether such information corrects recipient risk beliefs.
Participants assess risks numerically, before and after being exposed to a relevant risk communication. Accuracy is incentivised by awarding financial prizes to answers closest to a pursued risk belief. To illustrate this method, 228 students from the University of Oslo, Norway, were asked to estimate the mortality risk of Swedish snus and cigarettes twice, before and after being exposed to one of three risk communications with information on the health dangers of snus.
The data allow us to measure how participants updated their risk beliefs after being exposed to different risk communications. Risk information from the government strongly distorted risk perceptions for snus. A newspaper article discussing the relative risks of cigarettes and snus reduced belief errors regarding snus risks, but increased belief errors regarding smoking. The perceived quality of the risk communication was not associated with decreased belief errors.
Public health information can potentially make the public less informed on risks about harmful products or behaviours. This risk can be reduced by targeting identified, measurable belief errors and empirically assessing how alternative communications affect these. The proposed method of incentivised risk estimation might be helpful in future assessments of risk communications.
PubMed ID
29414485 View in PubMed
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Assessment and management of risk for intimate partner violence by police officers using the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature125545
Source
Law Hum Behav. 2012 Feb;36(1):60-7
Publication Type
Article
Date
Feb-2012
Author
Henrik Belfrage
Susanne Strand
Jennifer E Storey
Andrea L Gibas
P Randall Kropp
Stephen D Hart
Author Affiliation
Department of Health Sciences, Section for Criminology, Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall, Sweden.
Source
Law Hum Behav. 2012 Feb;36(1):60-7
Date
Feb-2012
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Domestic Violence
Female
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Police
Risk Assessment - methods
Sweden
Young Adult
Abstract
Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a crime that is present in all countries, seriously impacts victims, and demands a great deal of time and resources from the criminal justice system. The current study examined the use of the Spousal Assault Risk Assessment Guide, 2nd ed. (SARA; Kropp, Hart, Webster, & Eaves, 1995), a structured professional judgment risk assessment and management tool for IPV, by police officers in Sweden over a follow-up of 18 months. SARA risk assessments had significant predictive validity with respect to risk management recommendations made by police, as well as with recidivism as indexed by subsequent contacts with police. Risk management mediated the association between risk assessment and recidivism: High levels of intervention were associated with decreased recidivism in high risk cases, but with increased recidivism in low risk cases. The findings support the potential utility of police-based risk assessment and management of IPV, and in particular the belief that appropriately structured risk assessment and management decisions can prevent violence.
PubMed ID
22471386 View in PubMed
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Assessment of the Surgical Apgar Score in a Swedish setting.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature136050
Source
Acta Anaesthesiol Scand. 2011 May;55(5):524-9
Publication Type
Article
Date
May-2011
Author
H. Ohlsson
O. Winsö
Author Affiliation
Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care Medicine, University Hospital of Umeå, Sweden. haoh0001@student.umu.se
Source
Acta Anaesthesiol Scand. 2011 May;55(5):524-9
Date
May-2011
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adult
Aged
Anesthesia
Apgar score
Blood Loss, Surgical
Blood pressure
Body mass index
Female
Heart rate
Humans
Infant, Newborn
Male
Middle Aged
Postoperative Complications - diagnosis - epidemiology
Predictive value of tests
ROC Curve
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment - methods
Sweden
Abstract
Predicting major post-operative complications is an important task for which simple and reliable methods are lacking. A simple scoring system based on intraoperative heart rate, blood pressure and blood loss was recently developed to fill this gap. This system, the Surgical Apgar Score, shows promising results both in terms of validity and in terms of usefulness. The goal of this study was to study both these components in a Scandinavian setting.
Pre-operative patient characteristics and intraoperative variables were recorded for 224 patients undergoing general and vascular surgery between 26 October and 17 December 2009. Major complications were evaluated during a 30-day follow-up. The relationship between Surgical Apgar Score and major complication was analysed using ?(2)-tests and the relative risk between different scoring patient groups was analysed.
The study showed a strong correlation between the Surgical Apgar Score and major complication (P
PubMed ID
21418156 View in PubMed
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Cancer risk in hospitalized rheumatoid arthritis patients.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature86506
Source
Rheumatology (Oxford). 2008 May;47(5):698-701
Publication Type
Article
Date
May-2008
Author
Hemminki K.
Li X.
Sundquist K.
Sundquist J.
Author Affiliation
Division of Molecular Genetic Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany. k.hemminki@dkfz.de
Source
Rheumatology (Oxford). 2008 May;47(5):698-701
Date
May-2008
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Arthritis, Rheumatoid - complications - drug therapy
Carcinoma, Squamous Cell - complications
Databases, Factual
Follow-Up Studies
Hospitalization
Humans
Immunosuppressive Agents - therapeutic use
Leukemia - complications
Lymphoma - complications
Melanoma - complications
Neoplasms - complications
Registries
Risk Assessment - methods
Skin Neoplasms - complications
Sweden
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Patients diagnosed with RA have been at an increased risk of many cancers and at a decreased risk of some cancers. We planned to revisit the theme by using a nation-wide population of RA patients. METHODS: An RA research database was constructed by identifying hospitalized RA patients from the Hospital Discharge Register and cancer patients from the Cancer Registry. Earlier studies from Sweden have shown that some 75% of RA patients have been hospitalized at some time point. Follow-up of 42,262 RA patients was carried out from year 1980 to 2004 including separate follow-ups for shorter intervals. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated for cancer in RA patients by comparing with subjects without RA. RESULTS: Many cancers were in excess in RA patients, especially Hodgkin disease, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and squamous cell skin cancer; a novel association was found for non-thyroid endocrine tumours. Colon, rectal and endometrial cancers were decreased in RA patients. When RA patients were first hospitalized after 1999, the SIRs for melanoma, squamous cell skin and upper aerodigestive tract cancers and for leukaemia were increased compared with previous periods. CONCLUSIONS: This study, the largest so far published, quantified the increased and decreased site-specific risks of cancer in RA patients. The recent increases in the risks of squamous cell skin and upper aerodigestive tract cancers, melanoma and leukaemia call for continuous vigilance and recording of changes in treatment.
PubMed ID
18378514 View in PubMed
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Can the reporting of adverse skin reactions to cosmetics be improved? A prospective clinical study using a structured protocol.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature86813
Source
Contact Dermatitis. 2008 Apr;58(4):223-7
Publication Type
Article
Date
Apr-2008
Author
Berne Berit
Tammela Monica
Färm Gunilla
Inerot Annica
Lindberg Magnus
Author Affiliation
Department of Medical Sciences, Section of Dermatology and Venereology, University Hospital, S-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden. berit.berne@medsci.uu.se
Source
Contact Dermatitis. 2008 Apr;58(4):223-7
Date
Apr-2008
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adolescent
Adult
Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting Systems - standards - statistics & numerical data
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Causality
Child
Clinical Protocols
Cosmetics - adverse effects
Dermatitis - diagnosis
Dermatitis, Allergic Contact - diagnosis - etiology
Dermatitis, Irritant - diagnosis - etiology
Female
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Patch Tests
Prospective Studies
Risk Assessment - methods
Skin - pathology
Statistics, nonparametric
Sweden
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The use of cosmetics is rising, and adverse reactions to these products are increasing. In Sweden, the Medical Products Agency (MPA) keeps a voluntary reporting system for such adverse reactions. However, the reporting is sparse, consisting almost only of cases with test-proven allergic contact dermatitis, thus under-reporting the more common irritant reactions. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to try to improve the reporting system. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Dermatologists at 3 dermatology departments used a structured protocol during the clinical investigation of 151 consecutive patients reporting skin reactions to cosmetics. The protocol included symptoms, signs, affected body site, suspected products, and final diagnosis after patch testing. Based on clinical data and patch test results, a causality assessment for each product was made according to a protocol used at the MPA. Results: Allergic contact dermatitis was found in 28% of the patients, and irritant reactions were equally common at 27%. CONCLUSIONS: Using this structured protocol, the cases of irritant dermatitis were also reported, and it is recommended that such a protocol is used as a standard to improve the reporting of adverse reactions to skin care products.
PubMed ID
18353030 View in PubMed
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Cardiovascular and cognitive fitness at age 18 and risk of early-onset dementia.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature104811
Source
Brain. 2014 May;137(Pt 5):1514-23
Publication Type
Article
Date
May-2014
Author
Jenny Nyberg
Maria A I Åberg
Linus Schiöler
Michael Nilsson
Anders Wallin
Kjell Torén
H Georg Kuhn
Author Affiliation
1 Centre for Brain Repair and Rehabilitation, Institute for Neuroscience and Physiology, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Source
Brain. 2014 May;137(Pt 5):1514-23
Date
May-2014
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adolescent
Cardiovascular Diseases - complications - epidemiology
Cognition Disorders - complications - epidemiology
Cohort Studies
Dementia - epidemiology - etiology
Disease Progression
Humans
Male
Mild Cognitive Impairment - epidemiology - etiology
Physical Fitness - physiology
Proportional Hazards Models
Risk Assessment - methods
Sweden
Abstract
Patients with early-onset dementia are a significantly under-recognized subgroup of patients with an increasing prevalence. Epidemiological studies are limited and studies of modifiable risk factors, such as physical fitness, are lacking. We aimed to investigate the associations between cardiovascular fitness individually and in combination with cognitive performance at age 18 and risk of early-onset dementia and mild cognitive impairment later in life. We performed a population-based cohort study of over 1.1 million Swedish, 18-year-old, male conscripts, who underwent conscription exams between 1968 and 2005. These males were then followed for up to 42 years. Objective data on cardiovascular fitness and cognitive performance were collected during conscription exams and were subsequently linked with hospital registries to calculate later risk of early-onset dementia and mild cognitive impairment using Cox proportional hazards models controlling for several confounders. The scores from the exams were divided into tertiles (low, medium, high) for the analyses. The mean follow-up time for the analyses was 25.7 years (standard deviation: 9.3) and the median was 27 years. In total, 30 195 315 person-years of follow-up were included in the study. In fully adjusted models, both low cardiovascular fitness and cognitive performance (compared to high) at age 18 were associated with increased risk for future early-onset dementia (cardiovascular fitness, n = 662 events: hazard ratio 2.49, 95%, confidence interval 1.87-3.32; cognitive performance, n = 657 events: hazard ratio 4.11, 95%, confidence interval 3.19-5.29) and mild cognitive impairment (cardiovascular fitness, n = 213 events: hazard ratio 3.57, 95%, confidence interval 2.23-5.74; cognitive performance, n = 212 events: hazard ratio 3.23, 95%, confidence interval 2.12-4.95). Poor performance on both cardiovascular fitness and cognitive tests was associated with a >7-fold (hazard ratio 7.34, 95%, confidence interval 5.08-10.58) and a >8-fold (hazard ratio 8.44, 95%, confidence interval 4.64-15.37) increased risk of early-onset dementia and early-onset mild cognitive impairment, respectively. In conclusion, lower cardiovascular fitness and cognitive performance in early adulthood were associated with an increased risk of early-onset dementia and mild cognitive impairment later in life, and the greatest risks were observed for individuals with a combination of low cardiovascular fitness and low cognitive performance.
Notes
Comment In: Brain. 2014 May;137(Pt 5):1280-124771400
PubMed ID
24604561 View in PubMed
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Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature131758
Source
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Oct 15;409(22):4693-700
Publication Type
Article
Date
Oct-15-2011
Author
Anna Augustsson
Monika Filipsson
Tomas Oberg
Bo Bergbäck
Author Affiliation
School of Natural Sciences, Linnaeus University, Kalmar, Sweden. anna.augustsson@lnu.se
Source
Sci Total Environ. 2011 Oct 15;409(22):4693-700
Date
Oct-15-2011
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Cadmium - analysis - toxicity
Child, Preschool
Climate change
Environmental Exposure
Environmental pollution - analysis
Groundwater - chemistry
Humans
Metallurgy
Models, Theoretical
Probability
Risk Assessment - methods
Soil - analysis
Sweden
Abstract
Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the soil:water distribution coefficient (Kd).
PubMed ID
21880351 View in PubMed
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Clinical validation of S100B use in management of mild head injury.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature119439
Source
BMC Emerg Med. 2012;12:13
Publication Type
Article
Date
2012
Author
Olga Calcagnile
Linda Undén
Johan Undén
Author Affiliation
Department of Paediatric Medicine, Halmstad Regional Hospital, Halmstad, Sweden.
Source
BMC Emerg Med. 2012;12:13
Date
2012
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adult
Biological Markers - blood
Craniocerebral Trauma - blood - complications - radiography
Emergency Service, Hospital - standards - statistics & numerical data
Female
Glasgow Coma Scale - statistics & numerical data
Guideline Adherence - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Nerve Growth Factors - blood - diagnostic use
Outcome Assessment (Health Care) - statistics & numerical data
Practice Guidelines as Topic
Prospective Studies
Risk Assessment - methods
S100 Calcium Binding Protein beta Subunit
S100 Proteins - blood - diagnostic use
Sweden
Tomography, X-Ray Computed - adverse effects - standards - utilization
Trauma Severity Indices
Abstract
Despite validated guidelines, management of mild head injury (MHI) is still associated with excessive computed tomography (CT) scanning. Reports concerning serum levels of S100B have shown promise concerning safe reduction in CT scanning but clinical validation and actual impact on patient management is unclear. In 2007, S100B was introduced into emergency department (ED) clinical management routines in Halmstad, Sweden. MHI patients with low (
Notes
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PubMed ID
23102492 View in PubMed
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60 records – page 1 of 6.