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[EVALUATION AND PROGNOSIS OF EPIDEMIOLOGIC SITUATION FOR LYME BORRELIOSIS IN VLADIMIR REGION].

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature271673
Source
Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 2016 Jan-Feb;(1):58-62
Publication Type
Article
Author
T A Trifonova
A A Martsev
Source
Zh Mikrobiol Epidemiol Immunobiol. 2016 Jan-Feb;(1):58-62
Language
Russian
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Epidemiological Monitoring
Forecasting
Humans
Humidity
Lyme Disease - epidemiology
Models, Statistical
Rain
Regression Analysis
Russia - epidemiology
Seasons
Temperature
Abstract
Evaluation and prognosis of epidemiologic process for Lyme borreliosis (Lb) in Vladimir region.
Report form No. 2 "Data on infectious and parasitic diseases". Territorial differentiation of morbidity was carried out in ArcView 3.1 program. The following climate parameters were used: average monthly air temperature, number of days of the month with precipitation, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, size of snow cover and content of oxygen in air in every month for the period of 2004-2012. Statistical treatment, correlation-regression analysis was carried out in Statistica program.
1211 cases of Lb morbidity were registered for the period of 2005-2012 in Vladimir region, that had increased by 46%. A territorial differentiation of the disease is noted. Average monthly temperature of July and September of the preceding year were established to be the most significant parameters, that affect the epidemiologic process. A mathematical model, that can be used for prognosis of epidemiologic situation for Lb, was constructed.
The mathematical model shows, that increased values of morbidity can be expected, if July of the preceding year was fairly warm, and September, on the contrary, differed by reduced values of air temperature.
PubMed ID
27029118 View in PubMed
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