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Uncertainties analysis of doses resulting from chronic inhalation of plutonium at the Mayak production association.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature174341
Source
Health Phys. 2005 Jul;89(1):33-45
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jul-2005
Author
M P Krahenbuhl
J D Bess
J L Wilde
V V Vostrotin
K G Suslova
V F Khokhryakov
D M Slaughter
S C Miller
Author Affiliation
University of Utah, 50 So. Central Campus Drive, Rm 1206, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA. mpk@nuclear.utah.edu
Source
Health Phys. 2005 Jul;89(1):33-45
Date
Jul-2005
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Administration, Inhalation
Air Pollutants, Occupational - pharmacokinetics
Air Pollutants, Radioactive - analysis - pharmacokinetics
Algorithms
Autopsy
Body Burden
Computer simulation
Humans
Models, Biological
Models, Statistical
Nuclear Reactors
Organ Specificity
Plutonium - administration & dosage - pharmacokinetics
Radiation Dosage
Radiation Monitoring - methods
Relative Biological Effectiveness
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment - methods
Risk factors
Russia - epidemiology
Sensitivity and specificity
Time Factors
Whole-Body Counting - methods
Abstract
A method is presented to determine the uncertainties in the reported dose due to incorporated plutonium for the Mayak Worker Cohort. The methodology includes errors generated by both detection methods and modeling methods. To accomplish the task, the method includes classical statistics, Monte Carlo, perturbation, and reliability groupings. Uncertainties are reported in percent of reported dose as a function of total body burden. The cohort was initially sorted into six reliability groups, with "A" being the data set that the investigators are most confident is correct and "G" being the data set with the most ambiguous data. Categories were adjusted based on preliminary calculation of uncertainties using the sorting criteria. Specifically, the impact of transportability (the parameter used to describe the transport of plutonium from the lung to systemic organs) was underestimated, and the structure of the sort was reorganized to reflect the impact of transportability. The finalized categories are designated with Roman numerals I through V, with "I" being the most reliable. Excluding Category V (neither bioassay nor autopsy), the highest uncertainty in lung doses is for individuals from Category IV-which ranged from 90-375% for total body burdens greater than 10 Bq, along with work histories that indicated exposure to more than one transportability class. The smallest estimated uncertainties for lung doses were determined by autopsy. Category I has a 32-38% uncertainty in the lung dose for total body burdens greater than 1 Bq. First, these results provide a further definition and characterization of the cohort and, second, they provide uncertainty estimates for these plutonium exposure categories.
PubMed ID
15951690 View in PubMed
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