Physical activity (PA) is inversely associated with mortality in the general population. We wanted to quantify the association of self-reported PA with mortality from all causes, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, and compare it with other known risk factors in different age segments.
The Bergen Clinical Blood Pressure Survey examined a sample of 6811 Norwegian men and women in 1965-71 with follow-up until 2005-07. Cox proportional hazard regression ratio (HR) and population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated for the old (>65), middle-aged (45-64) and young adults (22-44), respectively. We minimized confounding and bias by progressive comprehensive adjustments and subgroup-analyses (excluding early follow-up deaths, participants with self-reported disease and participants with changes in their PA-level prior baseline due to disease).
The HR [95% confidence interval (CI)] associated with a high PA-level was 0.63(0.56-0.71), 0.66(0.52-0.83) and 0.66(0.47-0.93) for mortality from all causes, IHD and stroke, respectively (reference: no participation in any of the listed activities, adjusted for age and gender). PAF (95% CI) of no/low activity (reference: any activity) was consistent across all age groups, varying from 7.3% (3.4-11.4) in the young adults to 9.1% (3.6-15.3) in the old. PAF of smoking and high s-cholesterol declined with increasing age [smoking from 19.9% (15.3-24.7) to 1.5% (-1.3 to 6.2) and s-cholesterol from 11.5% (5.6-17.5) to -9.5% (-18.1 to -0.7)], whereas PAF of hypertension increased from 5.3% (2.1-9.1) to 18.9% (8.3-28.4).
The relative importance of traditional risk factors varies between the age groups, but physical activity is a major health promoting factor across all age segments and should be encouraged particularly in an ageing population.
AIMS: Mortality from ischaemic heart disease has been decreasing in most industrialized countries since the 1960s. The aim of this study was to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality during 1969-1993 in Sweden, and to predict mortality trends until 2003. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-period cohort models were used to analyse ischaemic heart disease mortality in Sweden between 1969 and 1993, and to predict age-specific death rates and total number of deaths for the periods 1994-1998 and 1999-2003. Mortality rates in the age group 25-89 years decreased from 719 to 487 per 100,000 for men, and from 402 to 215 per 100,000 for women over the study period (average annual decrease of 1.5% for men and 2.2% for women). The decline started earlier for women than for men. The ratio of age-adjusted mortality between men and women increased steadily over the study period. Predictions based on the full age-period cohort model for the period 1999-2003 gave mortality rates of 346 and 155 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Despite the ageing of the population, the total numbers of ischaemic heart disease deaths in Sweden are predicted to decline by approximately 25% in both men and women from 1989-93 to 1999-2003. CONCLUSION: A major decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality has been observed in the last 15 years in Sweden. Both factors, cohort and calendar period, contain information which helps explain the decline in ischaemic heart disease mortality trends in Sweden. Predictions indicate that the decline of both age-specific and total mortality is to continue.
It has been repeatedly emphasized that alcohol provides the most plausible explanation for both the high rate of cardiovascular mortality rate and its dramatic fluctuations in Russia over recent decades, while other traditional risk factors identified in epidemiological studies have little predictive value. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates in Russia. A ge-standardized sex-specific male and female IHD mortality data for the period 1980-2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of ARIMA time series analysis. The results of the analysis showed that alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female IHD mortality rates: a 1-liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 3.9% increase in the male IHD mortality rate and a 2.7% increase in the female IHD mortality rate. As a conclusion, the results of this study provide indirect support for the hypothesis that the drastic fluctuations in IHD mortality in Russia over recent decades are related to alcohol, as indicated by the close temporal association between number of deaths from IHD and overall alcohol consumption per capita.
Most previous studies on the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality from ischemic heart disease (IHD) have been conducted in countries with an alcohol consumption pattern different from that in Sweden (and other countries in the "Vodka Belt"), where irregular binge drinking of distilled spirits is common. Therefore, we carried out an ecological study in Sweden where cross-sectional, longitudinal, and time series analyses (1973-1986) were performed on consumption of spirits, wine and beer in relation to age-standardized mortality in IHD for males and females. There was a negative correlation in both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses between wine consumption and mortality from IHD, especially strong for women, but no consistent relationship between the consumption of total ethanol, spirits and beer versus the mortality from IHD. In the time series analysis, only wine was negatively correlated with IHD mortality for women. We conclude that, on a population level, consumption of spirits and beer in a Swedish drinking pattern does not imply any protection against death from IHD. On the other hand, wine consumption in Sweden could be associated with a reduced risk of IHD death among women.
Alcohol consumption is steadily increasing in high-income countries but the harm and possible net benefits of light-to-moderate drinking remain controversial. We prospectively investigated the association between time-varying alcohol consumption and overall and cause-specific mortality among middle-aged women.
Among 48 249 women at baseline (33 404 at follow-up) in the prospective Swedish Women's Lifestyle and Health cohort, age 30-49 years at baseline, we used repeated information on alcohol consumption and combined this method with multiple imputation in order to maximise the number of participants and deaths included in the analyses. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to calculate HRs for overall and cause-specific mortality.
During >900 000 person/years, a total of 2100 deaths were recorded through Swedish registries. The median alcohol consumption increased from 2.3 g/day in 1991/1992 (baseline) to 4.7 g/day in 2004 (follow-up). Compared with light drinkers (0.1-1.5 g/day), a null association was observed for all categories of alcohol consumption with the exception of never drinkers. The HR comparing never with light drinkers was 1.46 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.74). There was a statistically significant negative trend between increasing alcohol consumption and cardiovascular and ischaemic heart diseases mortality. The results were similar when women with prevalent conditions were excluded.
In conclusion, in a cohort of young women, light alcohol consumption was protective for cardiovascular and ischaemic heart disease mortality but not for cancer and overall mortality.
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The mortality from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 35-64 year old Danish men has declined by 27% from 1981 to 1989. In the same period, a lesser increase in mortality from all other causes was observed. However, this is a heterogenous phenomenon, since the mortality from (in particular) infectious diseases (AIDS), diabetes mellitus, and a number of diseases related to heavy drinking has increased, whereas the suicide rate and mortality from lung cancer (in 1985-89) have decreased. It is not possible to evaluate the contribution of improved treatment of IHD cases and a decreasing incidence of disease, respectively, to the decline in mortality from IHD. A decreasing incidence is very probable, however, since both the percentage of smokers and the plasma cholesterol levels in middle-aged men have declined significantly since mid-1970s and leisure time physical activity has increased. The trend in IHD mortality in the 1980s points to a sustained decline in the 1990s and a levelling off in the increase in mortality from other causes. Thus total mortality is expected to decrease more rapidly in the 1990s, resulting in an increase in life expectancy of Danish men.
Comment In: Ugeskr Laeger. 1993 Feb 22;155(8):568-98451797
Mortality caused by coronary disease is analyzed for Astrakhan for the period of 1983-1997 (total, non-hospital and hospital mortality). The distribution of mortality by the years and months of the year, sex, age, and cause of death structure is analyzed as exemplified by 6505 deaths.
BACKGROUND: In a public health perspective, it is of interest to assess the magnitude of geographical variations in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality and quantify the strength of contextual effects on IHD. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether area effects vary according to the individual and contextual characteristics of the population, socioeconomic contextual influences were assessed in different age groups and within territories of differing population densities. DESIGN: Multilevel survival analysis of a 28-year longitudinal database. PARTICIPANTS: 341 048 residents of the Scania region in Sweden, reaching age 50-79 years in 1996, followed up over 7 years. RESULTS: After adjustment for several individual socioeconomic indicators over the adult age, Cox multilevel models indicated geographical variations in IHD mortality and socioeconomic contextual effects on the mortality risk. However, the magnitude of geographical variations and strength of contextual effects were modified by the age of individuals and the population density of their residential area: socioeconomic contextual effects were much stronger among non-elderly than among elderly adults, and much larger within urban territories than within rural ones. As a consequence, among non-elderly residents of urban territories, the socioeconomic contextual effect was almost as large as the effect of individual 20-year cumulated income. CONCLUSIONS: Non-elderly residents of deprived urban neighbourhoods constitute a major target for both contextual epidemiology of coronary disease and public health interventions aimed at reducing the detrimental effects of the social environment on IHD.
CONTEXT: High resting blood pressure (BP) is among the best studied and established risk factors for cardiovascular disease. However, little is known about the relationship between BP under acute stress, such as in acute chest pain, and subsequent mortality. OBJECTIVE: To study long-term mortality related to supine BP in patients admitted to the medical intensive care unit (ICU) for acute chest pain. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Data from the RIKS-HIA (Registry of Information and Knowledge About Swedish Heart Intensive Care Admissions) was used to analyze the mortality in relation to supine admission systolic BP in 119,151 participants who were treated at the ICU for the symptom of chest pain from 1997 through 2007. Results from this prospective cohort study were presented according to systolic BP quartiles: Q1, less than 128 mm Hg; Q2, from 128 to 144 mm Hg; Q3, from 145 to 162 mm Hg; and Q4, at or above 163 mm Hg. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Total mortality. RESULTS: Mean (SD) follow-up time was 2.47 (1.5) years (range, 1-10 years). One-year mortality rate by Cox proportional hazard model (adjusted for age, sex, smoking, diastolic BP, use of antihypertensive medication at admission and discharge, and use of lipid-lowering and antiplatelet medication at discharge) showed that participants in Q4 had the best prognosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.80, Q4 compared with Q2; corresponding risks for Q1 were HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.39-1.52, and for Q3, HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.87). Patients in Q4 had a 21.7% lower absolute risk compared with Q2, patients in Q3 had a 15.2% lower risk than in Q2, and patients in Q1 had a 40.3% higher risk for mortality than in Q2. The worse prognosis in Q2 compared with Q4 was independent of body mass index and previous diagnoses and similar when analysis was restricted to patients with a final diagnosis of angina or myocardial infarction (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.71-0.80, Q4 compared with Q2). CONCLUSION: Among patients admitted to the ICU for chest pain, there is an inverse association between admission supine systolic BP and 1-year mortality rate.
INTRODUCTION: Respiratory symptoms are among the main reasons why patients make contact with healthcare professionals and they are associated with several diseases. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between respiratory symptoms reported at one time and 30 years cause-specific mortality and incidence of lung cancer in an urban Norwegian population. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 19 998 men and women, aged 15-70 years, were in 1972 selected from the general population of Oslo. They received a postal respiratory questionnaire (response rate 89%). All were followed for 30 years for end-point mortality and for lung cancer. The association between respiratory symptoms, given as a symptom load, and end point of interest were investigated separately for men and women by multivariable analyses, with adjustment for age, occupational exposure to air pollution and smoking habits. RESULTS: A total of 6710 individuals died during follow-up. Obstructive lung diseases (OLDs) and pneumonia accounted for 250 and 293 of the total deaths, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) accounted for 1572; stroke accounted for 653 of all deaths. Lung cancer developed in 352 persons during follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratio for mortality from OLD and pneumonia, IHD and stroke increased in a dose-response manner with symptom score, more strongly for OLD and IHD than for pneumonia and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Respiratory symptoms were positively associated with mortality from OLD, pneumonia, IHD and stroke, and incidence of lung cancer. This association was significant for mortality from OLD and IHD.