Skip header and navigation

Refine By

1792 records – page 1 of 180.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature291479
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 05 09; 114(19):4881-4886
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Date
05-09-2017
Author
Noah S Diffenbaugh
Deepti Singh
Justin S Mankin
Daniel E Horton
Daniel L Swain
Danielle Touma
Allison Charland
Yunjie Liu
Matz Haugen
Michael Tsiang
Bala Rajaratnam
Author Affiliation
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; diffenbaugh@stanford.edu.
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 05 09; 114(19):4881-4886
Date
05-09-2017
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Keywords
Global warming
Models, Theoretical
Abstract
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.
Notes
Cites: Science. 2000 Sep 22;289(5487):2068-74 PMID 11000103
Cites: Wiley Interdiscip Rev Clim Change. 2016 Jan;7(1):23-41 PMID 26877771
Cites: Science. 2005 Aug 12;309(5737):1040-4 PMID 16099975
Cites: Clim Change. 2011 Aug 1;107(3-4):615-624 PMID 22707810
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Nov 1;108(44):17905-9 PMID 22025683
Cites: J Geophys Res Atmos. 2016 Sep 16;121(17 ):9911-9928 PMID 27840780
Cites: Nature. 2011 Feb 17;470(7334):382-5 PMID 21331040
Cites: Curr Clim Change Rep. 2015;1(2):49-59 PMID 26312211
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Mar 31;112(13):3931-6 PMID 25733875
Cites: Nature. 2008 May 15;453(7193):353-7 PMID 18480817
Cites: Nature. 2015 Jun 25;522(7557):465-9 PMID 26108856
Cites: Nature. 2004 Dec 2;432(7017):610-4 PMID 15577907
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Apr 23;110(17):E1543 PMID 23513228
Cites: Sci Adv. 2016 Apr 01;2(4):e1501344 PMID 27051876
Cites: Science. 2008 Feb 1;319(5863):573-4 PMID 18239110
PubMed ID
28439005 View in PubMed
Less detail

Incorporating covariates into fisheries stock assessment models with application to Pacific herring.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature92594
Source
Ecol Appl. 2008 Jul;18(5):1270-86
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jul-2008
Author
Deriso Richard B
Maunder Mark N
Pearson Walter H
Author Affiliation
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California 92093-0203, USA. rderiso@iattc.org
Source
Ecol Appl. 2008 Jul;18(5):1270-86
Date
Jul-2008
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Animals
Fisheries
Fishes
Models, Theoretical
Abstract
We present a framework for evaluating the cause of fishery declines by integrating covariates into a fisheries stock assessment model. This allows the evaluation of fisheries' effects vs. natural and other human impacts. The analyses presented are based on integrating ecological science and statistics and form the basis for environmental decision-making advice. Hypothesis tests are described to rank hypotheses and determine the size of a multiple covariate model. We extend recent developments in integrated analysis and use novel methods to produce effect size estimates that are relevant to policy makers and include estimates of uncertainty. Results can be directly applied to evaluate trade-offs among alternative management decisions. The methods and results are also broadly applicable outside fisheries stock assessment. We show that multiple factors influence populations and that analysis of factors in isolation can be misleading. We illustrate the framework by applying it to Pacific herring of Prince William Sound, Alaska (USA). The Pacific herring stock that spawns in Prince William Sound is a stock that has collapsed, but there are several competing or alternative hypotheses to account for the initial collapse and subsequent lack of recovery. Factors failing the initial screening tests for statistical significance included indicators of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill, coho salmon predation, sea lion predation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Northern Oscillation Index, and effects of containment in the herring egg-on-kelp pound fishery. The overall results indicate that the most statistically significant factors related to the lack of recovery of the herring stock involve competition or predation by juvenile hatchery pink salmon on herring juveniles. Secondary factors identified in the analysis were poor nutrition in the winter, ocean (Gulf of Alaska) temperature in the winter, the viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus, and the pathogen Ichthyophonus hoferi. The implication of this result to fisheries management in Prince William Sound is that it may well be difficult to simultaneously increase the production of pink salmon and maintain a viable Pacific herring fishery. The impact can be extended to other commercially important fisheries, and a whole ecosystem approach may be needed to evaluate the costs and benefits of salmon hatcheries.
PubMed ID
18686586 View in PubMed
Less detail

Modelling the influence of Major Baltic Inflows on near-bottom conditions at the entrance of the Gulf of Finland.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature268458
Source
PLoS One. 2014;9(11):e112881
Publication Type
Article
Date
2014
Author
Gennadi Lessin
Urmas Raudsepp
Adolf Stips
Source
PLoS One. 2014;9(11):e112881
Date
2014
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Finland
Models, Theoretical
Oceans and Seas
Abstract
A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was implemented in order to estimate the effects of Major Baltic Inflows on the near-bottom hydrophysical and biogeochemical conditions in the northern Baltic Proper and the western Gulf of Finland during the period 1991-2009. We compared results of a realistic reference run to the results of an experimental run where Major Baltic Inflows were suppressed. Further to the expected overall decrease in bottom salinity, this modelling experiment confirms that in the absence of strong saltwater inflows the deep areas of the Baltic Proper would become more anoxic, while in the shallower areas (western Gulf of Finland) near-bottom average conditions improve. Our experiment revealed that typical estuarine circulation results in the sporadic emergence of short-lasting events of near-bottom anoxia in the western Gulf of Finland due to transport of water masses from the Baltic Proper. Extrapolating our results beyond the modelled period, we speculate that the further deepening of the halocline in the Baltic Proper is likely to prevent inflows of anoxic water to the Gulf of Finland and in the longer term would lead to improvement in near-bottom conditions in the Baltic Proper. Our results reaffirm the importance of accurate representation of salinity dynamics in coupled Baltic Sea models serving as a basis for credible hindcast and future projection simulations of biogeochemical conditions.
Notes
Cites: Ambio. 2005 May;34(3):188-9116042275
Cites: Mar Pollut Bull. 2005 Nov;50(11):1185-9615992832
Cites: Ambio. 2007 Apr;36(2-3):186-9417520933
Cites: Environ Sci Technol. 2009 May 15;43(10):3407-1119544832
Cites: Environ Sci Technol. 2009 May 15;43(10):3412-2019544833
PubMed ID
25393720 View in PubMed
Less detail

Craniometric data supports demic diffusion model for the spread of agriculture into Europe.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature148923
Source
PLoS One. 2009;4(8):e6747
Publication Type
Article
Date
2009
Author
Ron Pinhasi
Noreen von Cramon-Taubadel
Author Affiliation
Department of Archaeology, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland. r.pinhasi@ucc.ie
Source
PLoS One. 2009;4(8):e6747
Date
2009
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Agriculture
Cephalometry
Europe
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Abstract
The spread of agriculture into Europe and the ancestry of the first European farmers have been subjects of debate and controversy among geneticists, archaeologists, linguists and anthropologists. Debates have centred on the extent to which the transition was associated with the active migration of people as opposed to the diffusion of cultural practices. Recent studies have shown that patterns of human cranial shape variation can be employed as a reliable proxy for the neutral genetic relationships of human populations.
Here, we employ measurements of Mesolithic (hunter-gatherers) and Neolithic (farmers) crania from Southwest Asia and Europe to test several alternative population dispersal and hunter-farmer gene-flow models. We base our alternative hypothetical models on a null evolutionary model of isolation-by-geographic and temporal distance. Partial Mantel tests were used to assess the congruence between craniometric distance and each of the geographic model matrices, while controlling for temporal distance. Our results demonstrate that the craniometric data fit a model of continuous dispersal of people (and their genes) from Southwest Asia to Europe significantly better than a null model of cultural diffusion.
Therefore, this study does not support the assertion that farming in Europe solely involved the adoption of technologies and ideas from Southwest Asia by indigenous Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Moreover, the results highlight the utility of craniometric data for assessing patterns of past population dispersal and gene flow.
Notes
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 1998 Jul 21;95(15):9053-89671803
Cites: Nat Genet. 2008 May;40(5):646-918425127
Cites: Ann Hum Genet. 1998 May;62(Pt 3):241-609803269
Cites: Annu Rev Genet. 2004;38:645-7915568989
Cites: Hum Biol. 2004 Aug;76(4):499-51315754968
Cites: Proc Biol Sci. 2005 Apr 7;272(1564):679-8815870030
Cites: Proc Biol Sci. 2005 Jan 7;272(1558):3-1615875564
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2005 Nov 1;102(44):15942-716243969
Cites: Science. 2005 Nov 11;310(5750):1016-816284177
Cites: PLoS Biol. 2005 Dec;3(12):e41016292981
Cites: Am J Hum Biol. 2009 Jan-Feb;21(1):36-4718663742
Cites: Proc Biol Sci. 2009 Mar 7;276(1658):809-1419129123
Cites: Genetics. 2006 Feb;172(2):733-4116299392
Cites: Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Jul 7;273(1594):1595-60216769629
Cites: Am J Hum Genet. 2000 Nov;67(5):1251-7611032788
Cites: Science. 2000 Nov 10;290(5494):1155-911073453
Cites: Am J Hum Genet. 2000 Dec;67(6):1526-4311078479
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Jan 2;98(1):22-511136246
Cites: Am J Phys Anthropol. 2001 Oct;116(2):154-6511590587
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Aug 20;99(17):11008-1312167671
Cites: Mol Biol Evol. 2004 Jul;21(7):1361-7215044595
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2004 Aug 31;101(35):12824-915326305
Cites: Annu Rev Genomics Hum Genet. 2004;5:119-5015485345
Cites: Cancer Res. 1967 Feb;27(2):209-206018555
Cites: Science. 1978 Sep 1;201(4358):786-92356262
Cites: Am J Phys Anthropol. 1985 Nov;68(3):367-734061618
Cites: Hum Biol. 1990 Feb;62(1):49-702323769
Cites: Hum Biol. 1990 Feb;62(1):5-252323770
Cites: Am J Phys Anthropol. 1990 May;82(1):45-522349970
Cites: Nature. 1991 May 9;351(6322):143-52030731
Cites: Nature. 1994 Mar 31;368(6470):452-48133890
Cites: Am J Phys Anthropol. 1994 Sep;95(1):53-627527996
Cites: Am J Hum Genet. 1996 Jul;59(1):185-2038659525
Cites: J Hum Evol. 1997 May;32(5):476-889169996
Cites: Anat Rec A Discov Mol Cell Evol Biol. 2006 Dec;288(12):1225-3317075844
Cites: Am J Phys Anthropol. 2007 Mar;132(3):367-8017205548
Cites: Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Sep 7;274(1622):2161-717609193
Cites: Nature. 2007 Jul 19;448(7151):346-817637668
Cites: Bioessays. 2007 Dec;29(12):1185-818008372
Cites: Am J Phys Anthropol. 2008 May;136(1):108-1318161847
Cites: Hum Biol. 1998 Aug;70(4):643-579686478
PubMed ID
19707595 View in PubMed
Less detail

AtmospheRIC science. Tipping points in the tundra.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature95768
Source
Science. 2005 Oct 28;310(5748):627-8
Publication Type
Article
Date
Oct-28-2005
Author
Foley Jonathan A
Author Affiliation
Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53726, USA. jfoley@wisc.edu
Source
Science. 2005 Oct 28;310(5748):627-8
Date
Oct-28-2005
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Arctic Regions
Greenhouse Effect
Models, Theoretical
Trees
Notes
Comment On: Science. 2005 Oct 28;310(5748):657-6016179434
PubMed ID
16254174 View in PubMed
Less detail

Space competition and time delays in human range expansions. Application to the neolithic transition.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature117934
Source
PLoS One. 2012;7(12):e51106
Publication Type
Article
Date
2012
Author
Neus Isern
Joaquim Fort
Marc Vander Linden
Author Affiliation
Departament de Prehistòria, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain. Neus.Isern@uab.cat
Source
PLoS One. 2012;7(12):e51106
Date
2012
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Competitive Behavior
Human Migration
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Abstract
Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effect in human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations.
Notes
Cites: Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2010 Dec;82(6 Pt 1):06190521230688
Cites: Science. 2011 Jul 29;333(6042):560-121798934
Cites: Mol Ecol. 2012 Jan;21(1):45-5622117930
Cites: Science. 2012 Apr 27;336(6080):466-922539720
Cites: PLoS Biol. 2010;8(11):e100053621085689
Cites: Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2009 Nov;80(5 Pt 2):05710320365098
Cites: Phys Rev Lett. 2002 Oct 21;89(17):17810112398706
Cites: Nature. 1968 Dec 14;220(5172):1084-85723603
Cites: Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2004 Sep;70(3 Pt 1):03191315524555
Cites: PLoS Biol. 2005 Dec;3(12):e41016292981
Cites: PLoS Biol. 2010 Jan;8(1):e100028520087410
Cites: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Aug 20;99(17):11008-1312167671
PubMed ID
23251430 View in PubMed
Less detail

Introduction. Progress in Earth science and climate studies.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature272417
Source
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2008 Dec 28;366(1885):4503-8
Publication Type
Article
Date
Dec-28-2008
Author
J Michael T Thompson
Source
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2008 Dec 28;366(1885):4503-8
Date
Dec-28-2008
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Astronomy
Atmosphere
Climate
Earth (Planet)
Models, Theoretical
Abstract
In this introductory paper, I review the 'visions of the future' articles prepared by top young scientists for the second of the two Christmas 2008 Triennial Issues of Phil. Trans. R. Soc.A, devoted respectively to astronomy and Earth science. Topics covered in the Earth science issue include: trace gases in the atmosphere; dynamics of the Antarctic circumpolar current; a study of the boundary between the Earth's rocky mantle and its iron core; and two studies of volcanoes and their plumes. A final section devoted to ecology and climate covers: the mathematical modelling of plant-soil interactions; the effects of the boreal forests on the Earth's climate; the role of the past palaeoclimate in testing and calibrating today's numerical climate models; and the evaluation of these models including the quantification of their uncertainties.
PubMed ID
18818152 View in PubMed
Less detail

[Prevention in XXI century: analysis of conceptual approaches].

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature147367
Source
Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2009 Jul-Aug;(4):3-7
Publication Type
Article
Author
O P Shchepin
R V Korotkikh
Iu G Tregubov
Source
Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med. 2009 Jul-Aug;(4):3-7
Language
Russian
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Preventive Medicine - trends
Russia
Abstract
The notion of prevention was theoretically based upon the doctrines of the development of nature and society, the organism and environment relationship and on the biological and social patterns determining the public and individual health. The concept of dispanserization of population proved to be the most fruitful of all ideas of prevention. In the conditions of XXI century, the disease prevention became the reflection of the social essence of medicine. This prevention approach is really effective when its purposes, forms and methods are coordinated with the public health characteristics. The progress of disease prevention is inseparable from public responsibility for protection and promotion of public health and maintenance of healthy environment and conditions of work. In present situation, the dispanserization has to be supported with the new organizational technologies to carry out medical, preventive and periodical check-ups and to arrange the dispanserization quotas according the disease nosologies and to rank them for the subsequent dynamic monitoring of profile specialists. The most effective is the dispanserization related to the diseases which can be subjected to the modern techniques of early diagnostics implementing screening and other high-tech technologies in the framework of evidence-based medicine.
PubMed ID
19916238 View in PubMed
Less detail

Discontinuous steady-state analytical solutions of the Boussinesq equation and their numerical representation by MODFLOW.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature260574
Source
Ground Water. 2013 Nov-Dec;51(6):952-9
Publication Type
Article
Author
Jacob Zaidel
Source
Ground Water. 2013 Nov-Dec;51(6):952-9
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Computer simulation
Groundwater
Models, Theoretical
Water Movements
Abstract
Known analytical solutions of groundwater flow equations are routinely used for verification of computer codes. However, these analytical solutions (e.g., the Dupuit solution for the steady-state unconfined unidirectional flow in a uniform aquifer with a flat bottom) represent smooth and continuous water table configurations, simulating which does not pose any significant problems for the numerical groundwater flow models, like MODFLOW. One of the most challenging numerical cases for MODFLOW arises from drying-rewetting problems often associated with abrupt changes in the elevations of impervious base of a thin unconfined aquifer. Numerical solutions of groundwater flow equations cannot be rigorously verified for such cases due to the lack of corresponding exact analytical solutions. Analytical solutions of the steady-state Boussinesq equation, associated with the discontinuous water table configurations over a stairway impervious base, are presented in this article. Conditions resulting in such configurations are analyzed and discussed. These solutions appear to be well suited for testing and verification of computer codes. Numerical solutions, obtained by the latest versions of MODFLOW (MODFLOW-2005 and MODFLOW-NWT), are compared with the presented discontinuous analytical solutions. It is shown that standard MODFLOW-2005 code (as well as MODFLOW-2000 and older versions) has significant convergence problems simulating such cases. The problems manifest themselves either in a total convergence failure or erroneous results. Alternatively, MODFLOW-NWT, providing a good match to the presented discontinuous analytical solutions, appears to be a more reliable and appropriate code for simulating abrupt changes in water table elevations.
PubMed ID
23387826 View in PubMed
Less detail

Questioning complacency: climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature82131
Source
Ambio. 2006 Mar;35(2):50-6
Publication Type
Article
Date
Mar-2006
Author
O'Brien Karen
Eriksen Siri
Sygna Linda
Naess Lars Otto
Author Affiliation
Department of Sociology and Human Geography at the University of Oslo in Norway. karen.obrien@sgeo.uio.no
Source
Ambio. 2006 Mar;35(2):50-6
Date
Mar-2006
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Climate
Environmental health
Greenhouse Effect
Models, Theoretical
Norway
Abstract
Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation.
PubMed ID
16722249 View in PubMed
Less detail

1792 records – page 1 of 180.