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Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature299316
Source
PLoS One. 2018; 13(10):e0206319
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Date
2018
Author
Marius Årthun
Bjarte Bogstad
Ute Daewel
Noel S Keenlyside
Anne Britt Sandø
Corinna Schrum
Geir Ottersen
Author Affiliation
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway.
Source
PLoS One. 2018; 13(10):e0206319
Date
2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Keywords
Animals
Climate
Fisheries - trends
Forecasting
Gadus morhua - physiology
Linear Models
Oceans and Seas
Population Density
Seasons
Abstract
Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.
PubMed ID
30356300 View in PubMed
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Evaluating patterns and drivers of spatial change in the recreational guided fishing sector in Alaska.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature285832
Source
PLoS One. 2017;12(6):e0179584
Publication Type
Article
Date
2017
Author
Maggie N Chan
Anne H Beaudreau
Philip A Loring
Source
PLoS One. 2017;12(6):e0179584
Date
2017
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Alaska
Animals
Conservation of Natural Resources
Ecosystem
Fisheries - trends
Fishes - physiology
Flounder - physiology
Recreation
Salmon - physiology
Abstract
Understanding the impacts of recreational fishing on habitats and species, as well as the social and ecological importance of place to anglers, requires information on the spatial distribution of fishing activities. This study documented long-term changes in core fishing areas of a major recreational fishery in Alaska and identified biological, regulatory, social, and economic drivers of spatial fishing patterns by charter operators. Using participatory mapping and in-person interviews, we characterized the spatial footprint of 46 charter operators in the communities of Sitka and Homer since the 1990s. The spatial footprint differed between Homer and Sitka respondents, with Homer operators consistently using larger areas for Pacific halibut than Sitka operators. Homer and Sitka showed opposite trends in core fishing location area over time, with an overall decrease in Homer and an overall increase in Sitka. For both Sitka and Homer respondents, the range of areas fished was greater for Pacific halibut than for rockfish/lingcod or Pacific salmon. Spatial patterns were qualitatively different between businesses specializing in single species trips and those that operated multispecies trips and between businesses with one vessel and those with multiple vessels. In Homer, the most frequently cited reasons for changes in the location and/or extent of fishing were changes in trip type and the price of fuel, while in Sitka, the most frequently cited reasons for spatial shifts were changes to Pacific halibut regulations and gaining experience or exploring new locations. The diversity of charter fishing strategies in Alaska may allow individual charter operators to respond differently to perturbations and thus maintain resilience of the industry as a whole to social, environmental, and regulatory change. This research also highlights the importance of understanding fishers' diverse portfolio of activities to effective ecosystem-based management.
Notes
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Cites: PLoS One. 2016 Apr 07;11(4):e015219027054890
PubMed ID
28632745 View in PubMed
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