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An ecological risk assessment model for Arctic oil spills from a subsea pipeline.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature296515
Source
Mar Pollut Bull. 2018 Oct; 135:1117-1127
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
Oct-2018
Author
Ehsan Arzaghi
Rouzbeh Abbassi
Vikram Garaniya
Jonathan Binns
Faisal Khan
Author Affiliation
National Centre for Maritime Engineering and Hydrodynamics, Australian Maritime College (AMC), University of Tasmania, Launceston, Australia.
Source
Mar Pollut Bull. 2018 Oct; 135:1117-1127
Date
Oct-2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Keywords
Arctic Regions
Bayes Theorem
Ecology - methods
Models, Theoretical
Petroleum Pollution
Risk Assessment - methods
Water Pollutants, Chemical
Abstract
There is significant risk associated with increased oil and gas exploration activities in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents a probabilistic methodology for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) of accidental oil spills in this region. A fugacity approach is adopted to model the fate and transport of released oil, taking into account the uncertainty of input variables. This assists in predicting the 95th percentile Predicted Exposure Concentration (PEC95%) of pollutants in different media. The 5th percentile Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC5%) is obtained from toxicity data for 19 species. A model based on Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is developed to assess the ecological risk posed to the aquatic community. The model enables accounting for the occurrence likelihood of input parameters, as well as analyzing the time-variable risk profile caused by seasonal changes. It is observed through the results that previous probabilistic methods developed for ERA can be overestimating the risk level.
PubMed ID
30301010 View in PubMed
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