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Beyond Correlation in the Detection of Climate Change Impacts: Testing a Mechanistic Hypothesis for Climatic Influence on Sockeye Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) Productivity.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature281203
Source
PLoS One. 2016;11(4):e0154356
Publication Type
Article
Date
2016
Author
Michael D Tillotson
Thomas P Quinn
Source
PLoS One. 2016;11(4):e0154356
Date
2016
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Alaska
Animal Migration
Animals
Climate
Climate change
Ecosystem
Fisheries
Fresh Water
Geography
Least-Squares Analysis
Life Cycle Stages
Models, Theoretical
Regression Analysis
Rivers
Salmon - physiology
Species Specificity
Temperature
Water - chemistry
Abstract
Detecting the biological impacts of climate change is a current focus of ecological research and has important applications in conservation and resource management. Owing to a lack of suitable control systems, measuring correlations between time series of biological attributes and hypothesized environmental covariates is a common method for detecting such impacts. These correlative approaches are particularly common in studies of exploited fish species because rich biological time-series data are often available. However, the utility of species-environment relationships for identifying or predicting biological responses to climate change has been questioned because strong correlations often deteriorate as new data are collected. Specifically stating and critically evaluating the mechanistic relationship(s) linking an environmental driver to a biological response may help to address this problem. Using nearly 60 years of data on sockeye salmon from the Kvichak River, Alaska we tested a mechanistic hypothesis linking water temperatures experienced during freshwater rearing to population productivity by modeling a series of intermediate, deterministic relationships and evaluating temporal trends in biological and environmental time-series. We found that warming waters during freshwater rearing have profoundly altered patterns of growth and life history in this population complex yet there has been no significant correlation between water temperature and metrics of productivity commonly used in fisheries management. These findings demonstrate that pairing correlative approaches with careful consideration of the mechanistic links between populations and their environments can help to both avoid spurious correlations and identify biologically important, but not statistically significant relationships, and ultimately producing more robust conclusions about the biological impacts of climate change.
Notes
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PubMed ID
27123845 View in PubMed
Less detail

Biodiversity influences plant productivity through niche-efficiency.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature265134
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 May 5;112(18):5738-43
Publication Type
Article
Date
May-5-2015
Author
Jingjing Liang
Mo Zhou
Patrick C Tobin
A David McGuire
Peter B Reich
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 May 5;112(18):5738-43
Date
May-5-2015
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Alaska
Biodiversity
Biomass
Climate change
Conservation of Natural Resources
Forests
Models, Theoretical
Plant Development
Plant Physiological Phenomena
Plants - classification
Poverty
Species Specificity
Trees
Abstract
The loss of biodiversity is threatening ecosystem productivity and services worldwide, spurring efforts to quantify its effects on the functioning of natural ecosystems. Previous research has focused on the positive role of biodiversity on resource acquisition (i.e., niche complementarity), but a lack of study on resource utilization efficiency, a link between resource and productivity, has rendered it difficult to quantify the biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationship. Here we demonstrate that biodiversity loss reduces plant productivity, other things held constant, through theory, empirical evidence, and simulations under gradually relaxed assumptions. We developed a theoretical model named niche-efficiency to integrate niche complementarity and a heretofore-ignored mechanism of diminishing marginal productivity in quantifying the effects of biodiversity loss on plant productivity. Based on niche-efficiency, we created a relative productivity metric and a productivity impact index (PII) to assist in biological conservation and resource management. Relative productivity provides a standardized measure of the influence of biodiversity on individual productivity, and PII is a functionally based taxonomic index to assess individual species' inherent value in maintaining current ecosystem productivity. Empirical evidence from the Alaska boreal forest suggests that every 1% reduction in overall plant diversity could render an average of 0.23% decline in individual tree productivity. Out of the 283 plant species of the region, we found that large woody plants generally have greater PII values than other species. This theoretical model would facilitate the integration of biological conservation in the international campaign against several pressing global issues involving energy use, climate change, and poverty.
Notes
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PubMed ID
25901325 View in PubMed
Less detail

The biogeography of red snow microbiomes and their role in melting arctic glaciers.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature294854
Source
Nat Commun. 2016 06 22; 7:11968
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Date
06-22-2016
Author
Stefanie Lutz
Alexandre M Anesio
Rob Raiswell
Arwyn Edwards
Rob J Newton
Fiona Gill
Liane G Benning
Author Affiliation
Cohen Laboratories, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
Source
Nat Commun. 2016 06 22; 7:11968
Date
06-22-2016
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Keywords
Arctic Regions
Bacteria - classification
Biodiversity
Biomass
Chlorophyta - classification
Climate change
Fatty acids
Freezing
Geography
Greenland
Ice Cover - microbiology
Iceland
Microbiota
Pigmentation
RNA, Ribosomal, 16S - genetics
Seasons
Sequence Analysis, DNA
Snow - microbiology
Species Specificity
Sweden
Abstract
The Arctic is melting at an unprecedented rate and key drivers are changes in snow and ice albedo. Here we show that red snow, a common algal habitat blooming after the onset of melting, plays a crucial role in decreasing albedo. Our data reveal that red pigmented snow algae are cosmopolitan as well as independent of location-specific geochemical and mineralogical factors. The patterns for snow algal diversity, pigmentation and, consequently albedo, are ubiquitous across the Arctic and the reduction in albedo accelerates snow melt and increases the time and area of exposed bare ice. We estimated that the overall decrease in snow albedo by red pigmented snow algal blooms over the course of one melt season can be 13%. This will invariably result in higher melt rates. We argue that such a 'bio-albedo' effect has to be considered in climate models.
Notes
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PubMed ID
27329445 View in PubMed
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Climate change and bird reproduction: warmer springs benefit breeding success in boreal forest grouse.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature292089
Source
Proc Biol Sci. 2017 Nov 15; 284(1866):
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
Nov-15-2017
Author
Per Wegge
Jørund Rolstad
Author Affiliation
Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, PO Box 5003 NMBU, 1432, Ås, Norway per.wegge@nmbu.no.
Source
Proc Biol Sci. 2017 Nov 15; 284(1866):
Date
Nov-15-2017
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Keywords
Animals
Climate change
Female
Galliformes - physiology
Global warming
Norway
Reproduction
Seasons
Species Specificity
Taiga
Temperature
Abstract
Global warming is predicted to adversely affect the reproduction of birds, especially in northern latitudes. A recent study in Finland inferred that declining populations of black grouse, Tetrao tetrix, could be attributed to advancement of the time of mating and chicks hatching too early-supporting the mismatch hypothesis. Here, we examine the breeding success of sympatric capercaillie, T. urogallus, and black grouse over a 38-year period in southeast Norway. Breeding season temperatures increased, being most pronounced in April. Although the onset of spring advanced nearly three weeks, the peak of mating advanced only 4-5 days. In contrast to the result of the Finnish study, breeding success increased markedly in both species (capercaillie: 62%, black grouse: 38%). Both brood frequency and brood size increased during the study period, but significantly so only for brood frequency in capercaillie. Whereas the frequency of capercaillie broods was positively affected by rising temperatures, especially during the pre-hatching period, this was not the case in black grouse. Brood size, on the other hand, increased with increasing post-hatching temperatures in both species. Contrary to the prediction that global warming will adversely affect reproduction in boreal forest grouse, our study shows that breeding success was enhanced in warmer springs.
Notes
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Cites: Evol Appl. 2014 Jan;7(1):15-28 PMID 24454545
PubMed ID
29118133 View in PubMed
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Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature274583
Source
PLoS One. 2016;11(2):e0148960
Publication Type
Article
Date
2016
Author
Johanna Lundström
Karin Öhman
Mikael Rönnqvist
Lena Gustafsson
Source
PLoS One. 2016;11(2):e0148960
Date
2016
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Biodiversity
Budgets
Climate change
Conservation of Natural Resources - economics
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Costs and Cost Analysis
Forecasting
Forestry - economics - methods
Forests
Models, Economic
Models, Theoretical
Plant Dispersal
Species Specificity
Sweden
Time Factors
Trees - growth & development
Abstract
A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.
Notes
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PubMed ID
26866480 View in PubMed
Less detail

Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature259387
Source
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Jun;20(6):1723-37
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jun-2014
Author
Mark D Hunter
Mikhail V Kozlov
Juhani Itämies
Erkki Pulliainen
Jaana Bäck
Ella-Maria Kyrö
Pekka Niemelä
Source
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Jun;20(6):1723-37
Date
Jun-2014
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Animals
Biodiversity
Climate change
Finland
Moths - physiology
Population Dynamics
Seasons
Species Specificity
Taiga
Abstract
Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32?years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations appear buffered at present from potential deleterious effects of climate change by other ecological forces.
PubMed ID
24421221 View in PubMed
Less detail

Faster poleward range shifts in moths with more variable colour patterns.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature291776
Source
Sci Rep. 2016 11 03; 6:36265
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Date
11-03-2016
Author
Anders Forsman
Per-Eric Betzholtz
Markus Franzén
Author Affiliation
Center for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems, EEMiS, Department of Biology and Environmental Science, Linnaeus University, SE-391 82 Kalmar, Sweden.
Source
Sci Rep. 2016 11 03; 6:36265
Date
11-03-2016
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Keywords
Altitude
Animals
Biodiversity
Climate change
Color
Ecosystem
Geography
Moths - classification - physiology
Pigmentation - physiology
Population Dynamics
Species Specificity
Sweden
Abstract
Range shifts have been documented in many organisms, and climate change has been implicated as a contributing driver of latitudinal and altitudinal range modifications. However, little is known about what species trait(s) allow for faster environmental tracking and improved capacity for distribution expansions. We used data for 416 species of moths, and show that range limits in Sweden have shifted to the north by on average 52.4?km per decade between 1973 and 2014. When also including non-expanding species, average expansion rate was 23.2?km per decade. The rate of boundary shifts increased with increasing levels of inter-individual variation in colour patterns and decreased with increasing latitude. The association with colour patterns indicate that variation in this functionally important trait enables species to cope with novel and changing conditions. Northern range limits also increased with average abundance and decreased with increasing year-to-year abundance fluctuations, implicating production of dispersers as a driver of range dynamics. Studies of terrestrial animals show that rates of poleward shifts differ between taxonomic groups, increase over time, and depend on study duration and latitude. Knowledge of how distribution shifts change with time, location, and species characteristics may improve projections of responses to climate change and aid the protection of biodiversity.
Notes
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PubMed ID
27808116 View in PubMed
Less detail

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature273680
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Jan 19;113(3):662-7
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jan-19-2016
Author
Tatiana A Shestakova
Emilia Gutiérrez
Alexander V Kirdyanov
Jesús Julio Camarero
Mar Génova
Anastasia A Knorre
Juan Carlos Linares
Víctor Resco de Dios
Raúl Sánchez-Salguero
Jordi Voltas
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Jan 19;113(3):662-7
Date
Jan-19-2016
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Climate change
Forests
Linear Models
Siberia
Spain
Species Specificity
Time Factors
Trees - growth & development
Abstract
Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (~ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.
Notes
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PubMed ID
26729860 View in PubMed
Less detail

Idiosyncratic responses of high Arctic plants to changing snow regimes.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature257807
Source
PLoS One. 2014;9(2):e86281
Publication Type
Article
Date
2014
Author
Sabine B Rumpf
Philipp R Semenchuk
Stefan Dullinger
Elisabeth J Cooper
Author Affiliation
Department of Conservation Biology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Vienna, Austria ; Institute for Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Troms, Norway ; Institute of Interdisciplinary Mountain Research, University of Vienna, Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Source
PLoS One. 2014;9(2):e86281
Date
2014
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Adaptation, Physiological
Arctic Regions
Climate change
Ecosystem
Environmental monitoring
Norway
Plant Development
Plant Physiological Phenomena
Seasons
Snow
Species Specificity
Temperature
Abstract
The Arctic is one of the ecosystems most affected by climate change; in particular, winter temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase with consequent changes to snow cover depth and duration. Whether the snow-free period will be shortened or prolonged depends on the extent and temporal patterns of the temperature and precipitation rise; resulting changes will likely affect plant growth with cascading effects throughout the ecosystem. We experimentally manipulated snow regimes using snow fences and shoveling and assessed aboveground size of eight common high arctic plant species weekly throughout the summer. We demonstrated that plant growth responded to snow regime, and that air temperature sum during the snow free period was the best predictor for plant size. The majority of our studied species showed periodic growth; increases in plant size stopped after certain cumulative temperatures were obtained. Plants in early snow-free treatments without additional spring warming were smaller than controls. Response to deeper snow with later melt-out varied between species and categorizing responses by growth forms or habitat associations did not reveal generic trends. We therefore stress the importance of examining responses at the species level, since generalized predictions of aboveground growth responses to changing snow regimes cannot be made.
Notes
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PubMed ID
24523859 View in PubMed
Less detail

Monitoring of Dinophysis species and diarrhetic shellfish toxins in Flødevigen Bay, Norway: inter-annual variability over a 25-year time-series.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature121623
Source
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2012;29(10):1605-15
Publication Type
Article
Date
2012
Author
L-J Naustvoll
E. Gustad
E. Dahl
Author Affiliation
Institute of Marine Research, Flødevigen Research Station, Nye Flødevigveien 20, N-4817 His, Norway. larsjn@imr.no
Source
Food Addit Contam Part A Chem Anal Control Expo Risk Assess. 2012;29(10):1605-15
Date
2012
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Animals
Climate change
Dinoflagellida - growth & development - isolation & purification - metabolism
Ecosystem
Environmental monitoring
Food Contamination
Food Inspection
Harmful Algal Bloom
Humans
Marine Toxins - analysis - biosynthesis
Mytilus edulis - chemistry - growth & development
North Sea
Norway
Phytoplankton - growth & development - isolation & purification - metabolism
Reproducibility of Results
Seasons
Seawater
Shellfish - analysis
Shellfish Poisoning - prevention & control
Species Specificity
Abstract
The accumulation of phycotoxins in bivalve mussels associated with mussels feeding on toxic phytoplankton is a well-known phenomenon in Norway. Regular monitoring for 25 years has revealed that accumulation of Diarrhetic Shellfish poisoning (DSP) toxins in mussels is the main phycotoxin problem along the Norwegian coast. The aim of this study was to evaluate possible trends over time of Dinophysis spp. and DSP as well as possible correlation between abundance of Dinophysis spp. and toxin accumulation in mussels, as based on intensive and regular monitoring at the southern coast of Norway at Flødevigen Bay. The main source organism causing a risk of DSP in Norway is Dinophysis acuta. However, it cannot be excluded that other Dinophysis spp., e.g. D. acuminata and D. norvegica, may contribute to the total accumulation of toxins. The variability in the occurrence of these species is high at both short- and long-term; between days and between years. There are, however, some important overall patterns in the occurrence of the species during the last decades. Dinophysis acuminata and D. norvegica have mainly been abundant from March to December, whereas D. acuta has typically occurred in late summer and autumn (August-December). For all three species we have observed a narrowing of the peak season since 2002 at the same time as they have become less abundant. Coincident with these changes, the problem of the accumulation of DSP toxins in mussels along the southern coast of Norway has declined significantly, but it is still mainly restricted to the autumn. Why the cell concentration of Dinophysis spp. has declined after 2002 is not obvious, but this has occurred in a period with relatively high summer temperatures. The relatively simultaneous changes in physical, chemical and biological factors of the pelagic ecosystem along the southern coast of Norway indicate that complicated ecological interactions may be involved.
PubMed ID
22891979 View in PubMed
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