The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing the probability of oil accidents. By integrating the work of a multidisciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed a probabilistic risk assessment application that considers the likely future development of maritime traffic and oil transportation in the area and the resulting risk of environmental pollution. This metamodel is used to compare the effects of two preventative management actions on the tanker collision probabilities and the consequent risk. The resulting risk is evaluated from four different perspectives. Bayesian networks enable large amounts of information about causalities to be integrated and utilized in probabilistic inference. Compared with the baseline period of 2007-2008, the worst-case scenario is that the risk level increases 4-fold by the year 2015. The management measures are evaluated and found to decrease the risk by 4-13%, but the utility gained by their joint implementation would be less than the sum of their independent effects. In addition to the results concerning the varying risk levels, the application provides interesting information about the relationships between the different elements of the system.
A simple and efficient algorithm is presented for finding a maximum likelihood pedigree using microsatellite (STR) genotype information on a complete sample of related individuals. The computational complexity of the algorithm is at worst (O(n(3)2(n))), where n is the number of individuals. Thus it is possible to exhaustively search the space of all pedigrees of up to thirty individuals for one that maximizes the likelihood. A priori age and sex information can be used if available, but is not essential. The algorithm is applied in a simulation study, and to some real data on humans.
A whole body counter (WBC) designed to measure bremsstrahlung from 90Y, the short-lived daughter of 90Sr, has been used since 1974 to measure 90Sr-body burdens in residents along the Techa River, which was contaminated by releases from the Mayak Production Association. Bayes' rule has been applied to the a posteriori WBC data in order to derive the uncertainties associated with the data: The lower limit of reliable detection is 2.0 kBq and the uncertainty of routine measurements is 1.6 kBq.
Boreal species were repeatedly exposed to ice ages and went through cycles of contraction and expansion while sister species alternated periods of contact and isolation. The resulting genetic structure is consequently complex, and demographic inferences are intrinsically challenging. The range of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) covers most of northern Eurasia; yet their geographical limits and histories remain poorly understood. To delineate the hybrid zone between the two species and reconstruct their joint demographic history, we analysed variation at nuclear SSR and mitochondrial DNA in 102 and 88 populations, respectively. The dynamics of the hybrid zone was analysed with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) followed by posterior predictive structure plot reconstruction and the presence of barriers across the range tested with estimated effective migration surfaces. To estimate the divergence time between the two species, nuclear sequences from two well-separated populations of each species were analysed with ABC. Two main barriers divide the range of the two species: one corresponds to the hybrid zone between them, and the other separates the southern and northern domains of Norway spruce. The hybrid zone is centred on the Urals, but the genetic impact of Siberian spruce extends further west. The joint distribution of mitochondrial and nuclear variation indicates an introgression of mitochondrial DNA from Norway spruce into Siberian spruce. Overall, our data reveal a demographic history where the two species interacted frequently and where migrants originating from the Urals and the West Siberian Plain recolonized northern Russia and Scandinavia using scattered refugial populations of Norway spruce as stepping stones towards the west.
The article provides the findings of a complex socio-hygienic survey of the lifestyle and health status of 350 families of workers and employees of Izhevsk. The identified differences in the conditions and lifestyle of families with high and low rates of morbidity permitted to calculate the values of relative risk for the formation of pathology among family members. It made it possible on the basis of the theorem of hypotheses (the Bayes' formula) and the algorithm of sequential statistical procedures to develop a screening prognostic table for early identification of families with risk for frequent diseases and providing them with primary prevention measures that would contribute to the reduction of morbidity.
Sea trout (Salmo trutta m. trutta) is a migratory form of brown trout common in the Baltic Sea. Nine populations from the southeast Baltic (Poland; Lithuania; Denmark, Bornholm; Estonia and Russia) were genotyped using iPLEX Gold technology (Sequenom) with 62 informative SNPs. A diagnostic panel of 23 SNPs was applied to estimate genetic differentiation and assess the population structure of Baltic sea trout. The highest level of pairwise FST differences was observed between the Russian (East Gulf of Finland) and Polish (Baltic main basin) populations. The lowest differences were between the two Polish and the Polish and Lithuanian populations. A genetic similarity was noted between the Estonian Riguldi River and Danish Bornholm populations, and this finding was supported by a Bayesian and factorial correspondence analysis. Diversity within populations was highest for populations from Estonia and lowest for the Lithuanian population. Genetic structure analysis indicated that individuals from the nine populations were clustered into four groups.
We investigated the genetic structure and variation of 21 populations of cattle (Bos taurus) in northern Eurasia and the neighbouring Near Eastern regions of the Balkan, the Caucasus and Ukraine employing 30 microsatellite markers. By analyses of population relationships, as well as by a Bayesian-based clustering approach, we identified a genetic distinctness between populations of modern commercial origin and those of native origin. Our data suggested that northern European Russia represents the most heavily colonized area by modern commercial cattle. Further genetic mixture analyses based on individual assignment tests found that native Red Steppe cattle were also employed in the historical breeding practices in Eastern Europe, most probably for incorporating their strong and extensive adaptability. In analysis of molecular variance, within-population differences accounted for approximately 90% of the genetic variation. Despite some correspondence between geographical proximity and genetic similarity, genetic differentiation was observed to be significantly associated with the difference in breeding purpose among the European populations (percentage of variance among groups and significance: 2.99%, P = 0.02). Our findings give unique genetic insight into the historical patterns of cattle breeding practices in the former Soviet Union. The results identify the neighbouring Near Eastern regions such as the Balkan, the Caucasus and Ukraine, and the isolated Far Eastern Siberia as areas of 'genetic endemism', where cattle populations should be given conservation priority. The results will also be of importance for cost-effective management of their future utilization.
The genetic structure of Sakhalin spruce (Picea glehnii) was studied across the natural range of the species, including two small isolated populations in south Sakhalin and Hayachine, by using six microsatellite loci and maternally inherited mitochondrial gene sequences. We also analyzed P. jezoensis, a sympatric spruce in the range. Genetic diversity of P. glehnii was higher in central Hokkaido and the lowest in the Hayachine. Bayesian clustering and principal coordinate analysis by using the microsatellites indicated that the Hayachine was clearly distinct from other populations, implying that it had undergone strong genetic drift since the last glacial period. P. glehnii harbored four mitochondrial haplotypes, two of which were shared with P. jezoensis. One of the two was observed without geographical concentration, suggesting its derivation from ancestral polymorphism. Another was observed in south Sakhalin and in P. jezoensis across Sakhalin. The Bayesian clustering--by using four microsatellite loci, including P. jezoensis populations--indicated unambiguous species delimitation, but with possible admixture of P. jezoensis genes into P. glehnii in south Sakhalin, where P. glehnii is abundantly overwhelmed by P. jezoensis; this might explain the occurrence of introgression of the haplotype of P. jezoensis into P. glehnii.
Demand for animal protein for human consumption is rising globally at an unprecedented rate. Modern animal production practices are associated with regular use of antimicrobials, potentially increasing selection pressure on bacteria to become resistant. Despite the significant potential consequences for antimicrobial resistance, there has been no quantitative measurement of global antimicrobial consumption by livestock. We address this gap by using Bayesian statistical models combining maps of livestock densities, economic projections of demand for meat products, and current estimates of antimicrobial consumption in high-income countries to map antimicrobial use in food animals for 2010 and 2030. We estimate that the global average annual consumption of antimicrobials per kilogram of animal produced was 45 mg·kg(-1), 148 mg·kg(-1), and 172 mg·kg(-1) for cattle, chicken, and pigs, respectively. Starting from this baseline, we estimate that between 2010 and 2030, the global consumption of antimicrobials will increase by 67%, from 63,151 ± 1,560 tons to 105,596 ± 3,605 tons. Up to a third of the increase in consumption in livestock between 2010 and 2030 is imputable to shifting production practices in middle-income countries where extensive farming systems will be replaced by large-scale intensive farming operations that routinely use antimicrobials in subtherapeutic doses. For Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the increase in antimicrobial consumption will be 99%, up to seven times the projected population growth in this group of countries. Better understanding of the consequences of the uninhibited growth in veterinary antimicrobial consumption is needed to assess its potential effects on animal and human health.
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