PURPOSE: Assess the physical activity and body mass index (BMI) levels of children in the United States, Sweden, and Australia. METHODS: A total of 1954 children, 6-12 yr old (711 American, 563 Australian, and 680 Swedish) wore sealed pedometers for four consecutive days. Height and weight measures were obtained. RESULTS: Descriptive data for step counts and BMI by sex, age, and country were calculated to determine activity levels and BMI. Three-way multivariate ANOVA for step counts and BMI between countries at each age and sex found that, in general, the Swedish children were significantly more active than the Australian and American children, and the American children were significantly heavier than the Australian and Swedish children. For boys, the mean step counts ranged from 15673 to 18346 for Sweden, 13864 to 15023 for Australia, and 12554 to 13872 for America. For girls, the mean step counts ranged from 12041 to 14825 for Sweden, 11221 to 12322 for Australia, and 10661 to 11383 for America. The activity curve is somewhat level during the preadolescent years. The rate of increase in BMI with age is much greater in the American children than in the Swedish or Australian children. The percent of American, Swedish, and Australian boys classified as overweight/obese was 33.5, 16.6, and 15.8, respectively. The percent of American, Swedish, and Australian girls classified as overweight/obese was 35.6, 16.8, and 14.4, respectively. Correlation analysis found few significant negative relationships between step counts and BMI. CONCLUSIONS: American children tend to be the least active and heaviest with the greatest rate of increase in BMI. The Swedish children are the most active group followed by Australia. Swedish and Australian children maintain lower BMI throughout their prepubescent years than do the American children who have a greater percentage who are classified as overweight.
OBJECTIVE: To estimate flavonoid intake in the Australian population. DESIGN: Flavonoid consumption was estimated from 24-hour recall data and apparent consumption data using US Department of Agriculture flavonoid composition data. SUBJECTS: The National Nutrition Survey 1995 assessed dietary intake (24-hour recall) in a representative sample (n=13,858) of the Australian population aged 2 years and over. RESULTS: Analysis of the 24-hour recall data indicated an average adult intake (>18 years) of 454 mg day(-1) (92% being flavan-3-ols). Apple was the highest quercetin source until age 16-18 years, after which onion became an increasingly important prominent source. Variations in hesperetin consumption reflected orange intake. Apple, apricot and grapes were the major sources of epicatechin and catechin for children, but subsided as wine consumption increased in adulthood. Wine was the main source of malvidin. Naringenin intake remained static as a percentage of total flavonoid intake until age 19-24 years, corresponding to orange intake, and then increased with age from 19-24 years, corresponding to grapefruit intake. Apparent dietary flavonoid consumption was 351 mg person(-1) day(-1), of which 75% were flavan-3-ols. Black tea was the major flavonoid source (predominantly flavan-3-ols) representing 70% of total intake. Hesperetin and naringenin were the next most highly consumed flavonoids, reflecting orange intake. Both 24-hour recall and apparent consumption data indicated that apigenin intake was markedly higher in Australia than reported in either the USA or Denmark, presumably due to differences in consumption data for leaf and stalk vegetables and parsley. CONCLUSIONS: Tea was the major dietary flavonoid source in Australia. Flavonoid consumption profiles and flavonoid sources varied according to age. More consistent methodologies, survey tools validated for specific flavonoid intakes and enhanced local flavonoid content data for foods would facilitate better international comparisons of flavonoid intake.
PURPOSE: Benign rolandic epilepsy (BRE) is considered a genetically determined idiopathic partial epilepsy. We analyzed a large sample of twins from four international twin registers to probe the genetics of BRE. We also aim to synthesize the apparently conflicting family and twin data into a model of BRE etiology. METHODS: Large population-based twin registries of epilepsies from Odense (Denmark), Richmond, Virginia (United States), and Oslo (Norway) were reviewed for BRE cases and added to our Australian twin data. Diagnosis of classic BRE was based on electroclinical criteria with normal neurologic development. Cases with a compatible electroclinical picture but abnormal neurologic development were termed non-classic BRE. RESULTS: Eighteen twin pairs were identified (10 monozygous; eight dizygous) of whom at least one twin was diagnosed with classic BRE among a total sample of 1,952 twin pairs validated for seizures, and all were discordant for BRE. The estimated monozygous pairwise concordance for BRE in this sample was 0.0 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.0-0.3). Four twin pairs (one monozygous, three dizygous) had non-classic BRE, and all co-twins had seizures. CONCLUSIONS: The twin data showing an absence of any concordant twin pairs with classic BRE suggest that noninherited factors are of major importance in BRE. Modelling the data shows that the familial occurrence of centrotemporal spikes makes only a minor contribution to the familial aggregation of BRE. Genetic factors are probably more important in non-classic BRE. The etiology and mode(s) of inheritance of BRE are much more complicated than initially conceptualized.
We evaluated three established statistical models for automated 'early warnings' of disease outbreaks; counted data Poisson CuSums (used in New Zealand), the England and Wales model (used in England and Wales) and SPOTv2 (used in Australia). In the evaluation we used national Swedish notification data from 1992 to 2003 on campylobacteriosis, hepatitis A and tularemia. The average sensitivity and positive predictive value for CuSums were 71 and 53%, for the England and Wales model 87 and 82% and for SPOTv2 95 and 49% respectively. The England and Wales model and the SPOTv2 model were superior to CuSums in our setting. Although, it was more difficult to rank the former two, we recommend the SPOTv2 model over the England and Wales model, mainly because of a better sensitivity. However, the impact of previous outbreaks on baseline levels was less in the England and Wales model. The CuSums model did not adjust for previous outbreaks.
OBJECTIVE: To illustrate quantitatively the effect of the aging of the population on the prevalence of chronic disorders by comparing the projected frequency of musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders in 3 comparatively "young" countries, Australia, Canada, and the United States, and 3 comparatively "old" countries, France, the United Kingdom, and Sweden. METHODS: Age specific rates for MSK disability in Canada were applied to World Bank population estimates and projects to estimate prevalence rates and numbers of persons with MSK disability in the years 1985, 2000, 2010, and 2020. RESULTS: The age structure of the populations affected baseline rates for MSK disability. Increases in both prevalence and numbers affected are expected for all countries between 1985 and 2020, up to a 34% increase in prevalence in Canada, and an 88% increase in numbers in Australia. CONCLUSION: The aging of the population is likely to result in a disproportionate increase in the number of people with chronic disabling disorders, which will be taking place against a background of a decreasing or static number of young adults, with implications for meeting needs for health care and community support.
Ovarian cysts of several types are common in women of reproductive age. Their etiology is not well understood but is likely related to perturbations in the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. The relationship of ovarian cysts to breast cancer risk is not known, although a negative association with polycystic ovarian syndrome has been reported. Incident, invasive female breast cancer cases, population-based controls and unaffected sisters of cases were studied from 3 countries participating in the Breast Cancer Family Registry: Melbourne and Sydney, Australia; the San Francisco Bay Area, USA; and Ontario, Canada. Using the same questionnaire, information was collected on self-reported history of ovarian cysts and other risk factors. Analyses were based on 3,049 cases, 2,344 population controls and 1,934 sister controls from all sites combined. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using both unconditional and conditional logistic regression using an offset term to account for sampling fractions at 2 of the sites. A significantly reduced risk of breast cancer was observed for women reporting a history of ovarian cysts (OR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.59-0.82, among all cases and all controls). This risk estimate was similar regardless of control group used, within all 3 sites and in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women (ORs ranging from 0.68-0.75, all 95% CI excluded 1.00). A self-reported history of ovarian cysts was strongly and consistently associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer. Further study of ovarian cysts may increase our understanding of hormonal and other mechanisms of breast cancer etiology.
This paper describes the methods used in the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership Module 4 Survey (ICBPM4) which examines time intervals and routes to cancer diagnosis in 10 jurisdictions. We present the study design with defining and measuring time intervals, identifying patients with cancer, questionnaire development, data management and analyses.
Recruitment of participants to the ICBPM4 survey is based on cancer registries in each jurisdiction. Questionnaires draw on previous instruments and have been through a process of cognitive testing and piloting in three jurisdictions followed by standardised translation and adaptation. Data analysis focuses on comparing differences in time intervals and routes to diagnosis in the jurisdictions.
Our target is 200 patients with symptomatic breast, lung, colorectal and ovarian cancer in each jurisdiction. Patients are approached directly or via their primary care physician (PCP). Patients' PCPs and cancer treatment specialists (CTSs) are surveyed, and 'data rules' are applied to combine and reconcile conflicting information. Where CTS information is unavailable, audit information is sought from treatment records and databases.
Reliability testing of the patient questionnaire showed that agreement was complete (?=1) in four items and substantial (?=0.8, 95% CI 0.333 to 1) in one item. The identification of eligible patients is sufficient to meet the targets for breast, lung and colorectal cancer. Initial patient and PCP survey response rates from the UK and Sweden are comparable with similar published surveys. Data collection was completed in early 2016 for all cancer types.
An international questionnaire-based survey of patients with cancer, PCPs and CTSs has been developed and launched in 10 jurisdictions. ICBPM4 will help to further understand international differences in cancer survival by comparing time intervals and routes to cancer diagnosis.
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Low Apgar score has been associated with higher risk for several neurological and psychiatric disorders, including cerebral palsy and intellectual disability. Studies of the association between Apgar score and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been inconsistent. We aimed to investigate (1) the association between low Apgar score at 5 min and risk for ASD, and (2) the modifying effects of gestational age and sex on this association in the largest multinational database of ASD. We included prospective data from 5.5 million individuals and over 33,000 cases of ASD from Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Western Australia who were born between 1984 and 2007. We calculated crude and adjusted risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the associations between low Apgar score and ASD. All analyses for ASD were repeated for autistic disorder (AD). We used interaction terms and stratified analysis to investigate the effects of sex, gestational age, and birth weight on the association. In fully adjusted models, low Apgar scores (1-3) (RR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.16-1.74), and intermediate Apgar scores (4-6) (RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.36-1.65) were associated with a higher RR of ASD than optimal Apgar score (7-10). The point estimates for low (RR, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.41-2.51) and intermediate Apgar score (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.32-1.81) were larger for AD than for ASD. This study suggests that low Apgar score is associated with higher risk of ASD, and in particular AD. We did not observe any major modifying effects of gestational age and sex, although there seems to be substantial confounding by gestational age and birth weight on the observed association.
The prevalence of class III obesity (body mass index [BMI]=40 kg/m2) has increased dramatically in several countries and currently affects 6% of adults in the US, with uncertain impact on the risks of illness and death. Using data from a large pooled study, we evaluated the risk of death, overall and due to a wide range of causes, and years of life expectancy lost associated with class III obesity.
In a pooled analysis of 20 prospective studies from the United States, Sweden, and Australia, we estimated sex- and age-adjusted total and cause-specific mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 persons per year) and multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for adults, aged 19-83 y at baseline, classified as obese class III (BMI 40.0-59.9 kg/m2) compared with those classified as normal weight (BMI 18.5-24.9 kg/m2). Participants reporting ever smoking cigarettes or a history of chronic disease (heart disease, cancer, stroke, or emphysema) on baseline questionnaires were excluded. Among 9,564 class III obesity participants, mortality rates were 856.0 in men and 663.0 in women during the study period (1976-2009). Among 304,011 normal-weight participants, rates were 346.7 and 280.5 in men and women, respectively. Deaths from heart disease contributed largely to the excess rates in the class III obesity group (rate differences?=?238.9 and 132.8 in men and women, respectively), followed by deaths from cancer (rate differences?=?36.7 and 62.3 in men and women, respectively) and diabetes (rate differences?=?51.2 and 29.2 in men and women, respectively). Within the class III obesity range, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for total deaths and deaths due to heart disease, cancer, diabetes, nephritis/nephrotic syndrome/nephrosis, chronic lower respiratory disease, and influenza/pneumonia increased with increasing BMI. Compared with normal-weight BMI, a BMI of 40-44.9, 45-49.9, 50-54.9, and 55-59.9 kg/m2 was associated with an estimated 6.5 (95% CI: 5.7-7.3), 8.9 (95% CI: 7.4-10.4), 9.8 (95% CI: 7.4-12.2), and 13.7 (95% CI: 10.5-16.9) y of life lost. A limitation was that BMI was mainly ascertained by self-report.
Class III obesity is associated with substantially elevated rates of total mortality, with most of the excess deaths due to heart disease, cancer, and diabetes, and major reductions in life expectancy compared with normal weight. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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The origins and development of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) remain unresolved. No individual-level study has provided estimates of additive genetic, maternal, and environmental effects in ASD across several countries.
To estimate the additive genetic, maternal, and environmental effects in ASD.
Population-based, multinational cohort study including full birth cohorts of children from Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Israel, and Western Australia born between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2011, and followed up to age 16 years. Data were analyzed from September 23, 2016 through February 4, 2018.
Across 5 countries, models were fitted to estimate variance components describing the total variance in risk for ASD occurrence owing to additive genetics, maternal, and shared and nonshared environmental effects.
The analytic sample included 2?001?631 individuals, of whom 1?027?546 (51.3%) were male. Among the entire sample, 22?156 were diagnosed with ASD. The median (95% CI) ASD heritability was 80.8% (73.2%-85.5%) for country-specific point estimates, ranging from 50.9% (25.1%-75.6%) (Finland) to 86.8% (69.8%-100.0%) (Israel). For the Nordic countries combined, heritability estimates ranged from 81.2% (73.9%-85.3%) to 82.7% (79.1%-86.0%). Maternal effect was estimated to range from 0.4% to 1.6%. Estimates of genetic, maternal, and environmental effects for autistic disorder were similar with ASD.
Based on population data from 5 countries, the heritability of ASD was estimated to be approximately 80%, indicating that the variation in ASD occurrence in the population is mostly owing to inherited genetic influences, with no support for contribution from maternal effects. The results suggest possible modest differences in the sources of ASD risk between countries.
CommentIn: JAMA Psychiatry. 2019 Oct 1;76(10):1005-1006 PMID 31314055