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Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature100235
Source
Nature. 2010 Oct 21;467(7318):959-62
Publication Type
Article
Date
Oct-21-2010
Author
Daniel F Doak
William F Morris
Author Affiliation
Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming 82071, USA. ddoak@uwyo.edu
Source
Nature. 2010 Oct 21;467(7318):959-62
Date
Oct-21-2010
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Keywords
Alaska
Alberta
Climate
Cold Climate
Colorado
Ecosystem
Geography
Global Warming - statistics & numerical data
Polygonum - growth & development
Population Growth
Seasons
Silene - growth & development
Snow
Stochastic Processes
Temperature
Abstract
To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.
PubMed ID
20962844 View in PubMed
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Geographic location, local environment, and individual size mediate the effects of climate warming and neighbors on a benefactor plant.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature296034
Source
Oecologia. 2018 Nov 22; :
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
Nov-22-2018
Author
Jesús Villellas
María B García
William F Morris
Author Affiliation
Biology Department, Duke University, 125 Science Dr, Durham, NC, 27708, USA. jesus.villellas@gmail.com.
Source
Oecologia. 2018 Nov 22; :
Date
Nov-22-2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Predictions of plant responses to global warming frequently ignore biotic interactions and intraspecific variation across geographical ranges. Benefactor species play an important role in plant communities by protecting other taxa from harsh environments, but the combined effects of warming and beneficiary species on their performance have been largely unexamined. We analyzed the joint effects of elevated temperature and neighbor removal on the benefactor plant Silene acaulis, in factorial experiments near its low- and high-latitude range limits in Europe. We recorded growth, probability of reproduction and fruit set during 3 years. The effects of enhanced temperature were positive near the northern limit and negative in the south for some performance measures. This pattern was stronger in the presence of neighbors, possibly due to differential thermal tolerances between S. acaulis and beneficiary species in each location. Neighbors generally had a negative or null impact on S. acaulis, in agreement with previous reviews of overall effects of plant-plant interactions on benefactors. However, small S. acaulis individuals in the north showed higher growth when surrounded by neighbors. Finally, the local habitat within each location influenced some effects of experimental treatments. Overall, we show that plant responses to rising temperatures may strongly depend on their position within the geographic range, and on species interactions. Our results also highlight the need to consider features of the interacting taxa, such as whether they are benefactor species, as well as local-scale environmental variation, to predict the joint effects of global warming and biotic interactions on species and communities.
PubMed ID
30467597 View in PubMed
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