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Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature295553
Source
PLoS One. 2018; 13(10):e0206319
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
2018
Author
Marius Årthun
Bjarte Bogstad
Ute Daewel
Noel S Keenlyside
Anne Britt Sandø
Corinna Schrum
Geir Ottersen
Author Affiliation
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway.
Source
PLoS One. 2018; 13(10):e0206319
Date
2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.
PubMed ID
30356300 View in PubMed
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Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature299316
Source
PLoS One. 2018; 13(10):e0206319
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Date
2018
Author
Marius Årthun
Bjarte Bogstad
Ute Daewel
Noel S Keenlyside
Anne Britt Sandø
Corinna Schrum
Geir Ottersen
Author Affiliation
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway.
Source
PLoS One. 2018; 13(10):e0206319
Date
2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Keywords
Animals
Climate
Fisheries - trends
Forecasting
Gadus morhua - physiology
Linear Models
Oceans and Seas
Population Density
Seasons
Abstract
Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.
PubMed ID
30356300 View in PubMed
Less detail

Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature283375
Source
Nat Commun. 2017 Jun 20;8:15875
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jun-20-2017
Author
Marius Årthun
Tor Eldevik
Ellen Viste
Helge Drange
Tore Furevik
Helen L Johnson
Noel S Keenlyside
Source
Nat Commun. 2017 Jun 20;8:15875
Date
Jun-20-2017
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Abstract
It is commonly understood that a potential for skillful climate prediction resides in the ocean. It nevertheless remains unresolved to what extent variable ocean heat is imprinted on the atmosphere to realize its predictive potential over land. Here we assess from observations whether anomalous heat in the Gulf Stream's northern extension provides predictability of northwestern European and Arctic climate. We show that variations in ocean temperature in the high latitude North Atlantic and Nordic Seas are reflected in the climate of northwestern Europe and in winter Arctic sea ice extent. Statistical regression models show that a significant part of northern climate variability thus can be skillfully predicted up to a decade in advance based on the state of the ocean. Particularly, we predict that Norwegian air temperature will decrease over the coming years, although staying above the long-term (1981-2010) average. Winter Arctic sea ice extent will remain low but with a general increase towards 2020.
PubMed ID
28631732 View in PubMed
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