Three climatically diverse regions were studied to determine the impact of temperature change on heat-related mortality from 1971 to 1997. Median regressions showed that May-August temperatures in North Carolina rose by 1.0 degrees C (95% CL 0.0-2.0 degrees C) from 23.5 degrees C (74.3 degrees F), were unchanged in South Finland at 13.5 degrees C (56.3 degrees F), and rose in Southeast England 2.1 degrees C (0.3-4.0 degrees C) from 14.9 degrees C (58.8 degrees F). After determining for each region the daily temperature (as a 3 degrees C band) at which the mortality was the lowest, annual heat-related mortality was obtained as excess mortality per million at temperatures above this. Annual heat-related mortality per million (among the population at risk, aged 55+) fell in North Carolina by 212 (59-365) from 228 (140-317) to only 16 (not significant, NS); fell in South Finland by 282 (66-500) from 382 (257-507) to 99 (NS); and fell in Southeast England by 2.4 (NS) from 111 (41-180) to 108 (41-176). The falls in North Carolina and South Finland remained significant after allowances were made for changes in age, sex, and baseline mortality. Increased air conditioning probably explains the virtual disappearance of heat-related mortality in the hottest region, North Carolina, despite warmer summers. Other lifestyle changes associated with increasing prosperity probably explain the favorable trends in the cooler regions.
OBJECTIVE: To assess how effectively measures adopted in extreme cold in Yakutsk control winter mortality. DESIGN: Interviews to assess outdoor clothing and measure indoor temperatures; regressions of these and of delayed cause-specific mortalities on temperature. Setting Yakutsk, east Siberia, Russia. SUBJECTS: All people aged 50-59 and 65-74 years living within 400 km of Yakutsk during 1989-95 and sample of 1002 men and women who agreed to be interviewed. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily mortality from all causes and from ischaemic heart, cerebrovascular, and respiratory disease. RESULTS: Mean temperature for October-March 1989-95 was -26.6 degreesC. At 10.2 degrees C people wore 3.30 (95% confidence interval 3.08 to 3.53) layers of clothing outdoors, increasing to 4.39 (4.13 to 4.66; P
We looked for atypical weather patterns that could confound, and explain large inconsistencies in, conventional estimates of mortality due to SO(2), CO, and smoke. Using Greater London data for 1976-1995 in the linear temperature/mortality range 0-15 degrees C we determined weather patterns associated with pollutants (all deseasonalized) by single regressions of daily temperature, wind, rain, humidity, and sunshine at successive days advance and delay. Polluted days were colder (P0.05) some increase with smoke, perhaps acting as surrogate for PM(10), for which data were too scanty to analyze.
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate how mortality and protective measures against exposure to cold change as temperatures fall between October and March in a region of Russia with a mean winter temperature below -6 degrees C. DESIGN: Interview to assess factors associated with cold stress both indoors and outdoors, to measure temperatures in living room, and to survey unheated rooms. SETTING: Sverdlovsk Oblast (district), Yekaterinburg, Russia. SUBJECTS: Residents aged 50-59 and 65-74 living within approximately 140 km of Yekaterinburg in Sverdlovsk Oblast. Survey of sample of 1000 residents equally distributed by sex and age groups. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Regression analysis was used to relate data on indoor heating and temperatures, the amount of clothing worn, the amount of physical activity, and shivering while outside, to outdoor temperature; results were compared with mortality patterns for ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mortality from all causes. RESULTS: As mean daily temperatures fell to 0 degree C the amount of clothing worn outdoors increased, physical activity while outdoors became more continuous, and only 11 (6.6%) of the 167 people surveyed who went outdoors at temperatures above 0 degree C reported shivering. The mean temperature in living rooms in the evening remained above 21.9 degrees C. Mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes did not change. As the temperature fell below 0 degree C the number of items of clothing worn plateaued at 16.0 and the number of layers at 3.7. With regression analysis, shivering outdoors was found to increase progressively to 34.6% (P