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A novel approach in probabilistic quantification of risks within the context of maritime supply chain: The case of extreme weather events in the Arctic.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature305284
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Sep; 144:105673
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
Sep-2020
Author
Roozbeh Panahi
Adolf K Y Ng
Mawuli K Afenyo
Farshad Haeri
Author Affiliation
Dept. of Supply Chain Management, Asper School of Business, University of Manitoba, Drake Centre, 181 Freedman Crescent, Winnipeg, MB, Canada. Electronic address: Roozbeh.Panahi@umanitoba.ca.
Source
Accid Anal Prev. 2020 Sep; 144:105673
Date
Sep-2020
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Keywords
Arctic Regions
Bayes Theorem
Extreme weather
Humans
Risk assessment
Ships
Abstract
Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) are currently not well understood by the maritime community, even though the shipping industry is not immune to their potential disastrous consequences. This is critical for the Arctic supply chains, considering the serious lack of experience, data, communication facilities, and that rules and regulations governing the region are at the embryonic stage. Understanding such, the study develops an effective risk assessment model in the context of the maritime supply chain and quantifies the risks associated with EWEs in the Arctic. The model is developed based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) that reflects a probabilistic risk priority index based on Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMEA). Here, we introduce a new index, based on a weighted combination of the likelihood, visibility, and consequence of risk factors. The model is quantified by 51 respondents based on their sailing experience with cargo carriers along the Northwest Passage. Our findings suggest that dense fog and ice accretion are distinctly critical risk factors followed by thunderstorm, hail and/or waterspouts, extreme coldness, and blizzard. The study offers useful insight to all right- and stakeholders in the Arctic. Moreover, it presents an effective tool to develop high-resolution maps for maritime routes considering important shipping elements.
PubMed ID
32683131 View in PubMed
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