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21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature295788
Source
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Nov 08; :
Publication Type
Journal Article
Date
Nov-08-2018
Author
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
Derek P Tittensor
Julia L Blanchard
William W L Cheung
Marta Coll
Eric D Galbraith
Simon Jennings
Olivier Maury
Heike K Lotze
Author Affiliation
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
Source
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Nov 08; :
Date
Nov-08-2018
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15-30% (±12-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20-80% (±35-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
PubMed ID
30408274 View in PubMed
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Twenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature298910
Source
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 02; 25(2):459-472
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Date
02-2019
Author
Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
Derek P Tittensor
Julia L Blanchard
William W L Cheung
Marta Coll
Eric D Galbraith
Simon Jennings
Olivier Maury
Heike K Lotze
Author Affiliation
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Source
Glob Chang Biol. 2019 02; 25(2):459-472
Date
02-2019
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Keywords
Animals
Aquatic Organisms - physiology
Biomass
Body Size
Climate change
Ecosystem
Models, Biological
Oceans and Seas
Abstract
Climate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. These changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. Yet how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. We address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (±12%-17%) in the North and South Atlantic and Pacific, and the Indian Ocean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (±35%-200%) increase. Uncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the Arctic and smallest in the South Pacific Ocean. Projected changes were reduced under a low (RCP2.6) emissions scenario. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. Ecosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. We highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean basins. The range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.
PubMed ID
30408274 View in PubMed
Less detail