To examine the incidence, mortality and case fatality of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in Finland during 1993-2007 and to create forecasts of the absolute numbers of ACS cases in the future, taking into account the aging of the population.
Community surveillance study and modelled forecasts of the future.
Two sets of population-based coronary event register data from Finland (FINAMI and the National Cardiovascular Disease Register (CVDR)). Bayesian age-period-cohort (APC) modelling.
24 905 observed ACS events in the FINAMI register and 364 137 in CVDR.
Observed trends of ACS events during 1993-2007, forecasted numbers of ACS cases, and the prevalence of ACS survivors until the year 2050.
In the FINAMI register, the average annual declines in age-standardised incidence of ACS were 1.6% (p
Computational Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Center for Life Course Health Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland. Electronic address: email@example.com.
Apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I) infusions represent a potential novel therapeutic approach for the prevention of coronary artery disease (CAD). Although circulating apoA-I concentrations inversely associate with risk of CAD, the evidence base of this representing a causal relationship is lacking. The aim was to assess the causal role of apoA-I using human genetics.
We identified a variant (rs12225230) in APOA1 locus that associated with circulating apoA-I concentrations (p
Data on associations of apolipoproteins A-I and B (apo A-I, apo B) and HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) with dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD) are conflicting. Our aim was to examine, whether apo B, apoA-I, their ratio, or HDL-C are significant, independent predictors of incident dementia and AD in the general population free of dementia at baseline. We analyzed the results from two Finnish prospective population-based cohort studies in a total of 13,275 subjects aged 25 to 74?years with mainly Caucasian ethnicity. The follow-up time for both cohorts was 10?years. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to evaluate hazard ratios (HR) for incident dementia (including AD) (n?=?220) and for AD (n?=?154). Cumulative incidence function (CIF) analysis was also performed to adjust the results for competing risks of death. Adjusted for multiple dementia and AD risk factors, log-transformed apo A-I, log HDL-C, log apo B, and log apo B/A-I ratio were not associated with incident dementia or AD. HDL-C was inversely associated with AD risk when adjusted for competing risks but no other statistically significant associations were observed in the CIF analyses. Apo A-I, HDL-C, apo B, or apo B/A-I ratio were not associated with future dementia or AD. HDL-C was inversely associated with incident AD risk when adjusted for competing risks of death, but the finding is unlikely to be of clinical relevance. Our study does not support the use of these risk markers to predict incident dementia or AD.
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Studies have suggested that the prevention and treatment of coronary heart disease may not have been as effective in women as in men. Therefore, we aimed to examine whether the incidence, attack rate and mortality of myocardial infarction (MI) events have declined less in women than in men.
Two large population-based MI registers, the FINAMI register and the Finnish Cardiovascular Disease Register (CVDR) were used for comparing the event rates among men and women aged > or =35 years in two time periods, 1994-1996 and 2000-2002.
In the FINAMI register a total of 5,252 events were recorded in men and 4,898 in women. Corresponding numbers in the CVDR were 78,709 and 70,464. Both FINAMI and CVDR data suggested smaller declines in incidence and attack rate of MI events in women than in men. In CVDR data the decline in mortality was also smaller in women than in men, while in FINAMI data this difference did not reach statistical significance. In the large CVDR data set, negative binomial regression models revealed smaller declines in incidence (p = 0.006), attack rate (p = 0.008) and mortality (p = 0.04) in women than in men aged or =55 years no difference was observed between women and men.
The incidence and attack rate of MI events have declined less in women aged
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McDonnell Genome Institute, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63108, USA; Department of Medicine, Washington University School of Medicine, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA; Department of Genetics, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510, USA.
The contribution of genome structural variation (SV) to quantitative traits associated with cardiometabolic diseases remains largely unknown. Here, we present the results of a study examining genetic association between SVs and cardiometabolic traits in the Finnish population. We used sensitive methods to identify and genotype 129,166 high-confidence SVs from deep whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data of 4,848 individuals. We tested the 64,572 common and low-frequency SVs for association with 116 quantitative traits and tested candidate associations using exome sequencing and array genotype data from an additional 15,205 individuals. We discovered 31 genome-wide significant associations at 15 loci, including 2 loci at which SVs have strong phenotypic effects: (1) a deletion of the ALB promoter that is greatly enriched in the Finnish population and causes decreased serum albumin level in carriers (p = 1.47 × 10-54) and is also associated with increased levels of total cholesterol (p = 1.22 × 10-28) and 14 additional cholesterol-related traits, and (2) a multi-allelic copy number variant (CNV) at PDPR that is strongly associated with pyruvate (p = 4.81 × 10-21) and alanine (p = 6.14 × 10-12) levels and resides within a structurally complex genomic region that has accumulated many rearrangements over evolutionary time. We also confirmed six previously reported associations, including five led by stronger signals in single nucleotide variants (SNVs) and one linking recurrent HP gene deletion and cholesterol levels (p = 6.24 × 10-10), which was also found to be strongly associated with increased glycoprotein level (p = 3.53 × 10-35). Our study confirms that integrating SVs in trait-mapping studies will expand our knowledge of genetic factors underlying disease risk.
Age-period-cohort (APC) models are widely used for studying time trends of disease incidence or mortality. Model identifiability has become less of a problem with Bayesian APC models. These models are usually based on random walk (RW1, RW2) smoothing priors. For long and complex time series and for long predicted periods, these models as such may not be adequate. We present two extensions for the APC models. First, we introduce flexible interactions between the age, period and cohort effects based on a two-dimensional conditional autoregressive smoothing prior on the age/period plane. Our second extension uses autoregressive integrated (ARI) models to provide reasonable long-term predictions. To illustrate the utility of our model framework, we provide stochastic predictions for the Finnish male and female population, in 2010-2050. For that, we first study and forecast all-cause male and female mortality in Finland, 1878-2050, showing that using an interaction term is needed for fitting and interpreting the observed data. We then provide population predictions using a cohort component model, which also requires predictions for fertility and migration. As our main conclusion, ARI models have better properties for predictions than the simple RW models do, but mixing these prediction models with RW1 or RW2 smoothing priors for observed periods leads to a model that is not fully consistent. Further research with our model framework will concentrate on using a more consistent model for smoothing and prediction, such as autoregressive integrated moving average models with state-space methods or Gaussian process priors.
Early identification of ambulatory persons at high short-term risk of death could benefit targeted prevention. To identify biomarkers for all-cause mortality and enhance risk prediction, we conducted high-throughput profiling of blood specimens in two large population-based cohorts.
106 candidate biomarkers were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of non-fasting plasma samples from a random subset of the Estonian Biobank (n?=?9,842; age range 18-103 y; 508 deaths during a median of 5.4 y of follow-up). Biomarkers for all-cause mortality were examined using stepwise proportional hazards models. Significant biomarkers were validated and incremental predictive utility assessed in a population-based cohort from Finland (n?=?7,503; 176 deaths during 5 y of follow-up). Four circulating biomarkers predicted the risk of all-cause mortality among participants from the Estonian Biobank after adjusting for conventional risk factors: alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (hazard ratio [HR] 1.67 per 1-standard deviation increment, 95% CI 1.53-1.82, p?=?5×10?³¹), albumin (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.65-0.76, p?=?2×10?¹8), very-low-density lipoprotein particle size (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.62-0.77, p?=?3×10?¹²), and citrate (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.21-1.45, p?=?5×10?¹°). All four biomarkers were predictive of cardiovascular mortality, as well as death from cancer and other nonvascular diseases. One in five participants in the Estonian Biobank cohort with a biomarker summary score within the highest percentile died during the first year of follow-up, indicating prominent systemic reflections of frailty. The biomarker associations all replicated in the Finnish validation cohort. Including the four biomarkers in a risk prediction score improved risk assessment for 5-y mortality (increase in C-statistics 0.031, p?=?0.01; continuous reclassification improvement 26.3%, p?=?0.001).
Biomarker associations with cardiovascular, nonvascular, and cancer mortality suggest novel systemic connectivities across seemingly disparate morbidities. The biomarker profiling improved prediction of the short-term risk of death from all causes above established risk factors. Further investigations are needed to clarify the biological mechanisms and the utility of these biomarkers for guiding screening and prevention.
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Recent genome-wide association studies have identified genetic variants associated with blood pressure (BP). We investigated whether genetic risk scores (GRSs) constructed of these variants would predict incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. We genotyped 32 common single nucleotide polymorphisms in several Finnish cohorts, with up to 32,669 individuals after exclusion of prevalent CVD cases. The median follow-up was 9.8 years, during which 2295 incident CVD events occurred. We created GRSs separately for systolic BP and diastolic BP by multiplying the risk allele count of each single nucleotide polymorphism by the effect size estimated in published genome-wide association studies. We performed Cox regression analyses with and without adjustment for clinical factors, including BP at baseline in each cohort. The results were combined by inverse variance-weighted fixed-effects meta-analysis. The GRSs were strongly associated with systolic BP and diastolic BP, and baseline hypertension (all P
Several epidemiologic studies have shown an association between calcium and magnesium and coronary heart disease mortality and morbidity. In this small-area study, we examined the relationship between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) risk and content of Ca, Mg, and chromium in local groundwater in Finnish rural areas using Bayesian modeling and geospatial data aggregated into 10 km times symbol 10 km grid cells. Data on 14,495 men 35-74 years of age with their first AMI in the years 1983, 1988, or 1993 were pooled. Geochemical data consisted of 4,300 measurements of each element in local groundwater. The median concentrations of Mg, Ca, and Cr and the Ca:Mg ratio in well water were 2.61 mg/L, 12.23 mg/L, 0.27 microg/L, and 5.39, respectively. Each 1 mg/L increment in Mg level decreased the AMI risk by 4.9%, whereas a one unit increment in the Ca:Mg ratio increased the risk by 3.1%. Ca and Cr did not show any statistically significant effect on the incidence and spatial variation of AMI. Results of this study with specific Bayesian statistical analysis support earlier findings of a protective role of Mg and low Ca:Mg ratio against coronary heart disease but do not support the earlier hypothesis of a protective role of Ca.