Preterm infants needing patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) ligation are transferred to a pediatric cardiac center (CC) unless the operation can be done locally by a pediatric surgeon at a non-cardiac center (NCC). We compared infant outcomes after PDA ligation at CC and NCC.
We analyzed 990 preterm infants who had PDA ligation between 2005 and 2009 using the Canadian Neonatal Network database. In-hospital mortality and major morbidities were compared between CC (n=18) and NCC (n=9).
SNAP-II-adjusted mortality rates were similar (CC=8.7% vs NCC=10.7%, P=.32). Significant cranial ultrasound abnormalities (CC=24.1% vs NCC=32.1%, P
To develop and validate a statistical prediction model spanning the severity range of neonatal outcomes in infants born at = 30 weeks' gestation.
A national cohort of infants, born at 23 to 30 weeks' gestation and admitted to level III NICUs in Canada in 2010-2011, was identified from the Canadian Neonatal Network database. A multinomial logistic regression model was developed to predict survival without morbidities, mild morbidities, severe morbidities, or mortality, using maternal, obstetric, and infant characteristics available within the first day of NICU admission. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using a concordance C-statistic and the Cg goodness-of-fit test, respectively. Internal validation was performed using a bootstrap approach.
Of 6106 eligible infants, 2280 (37%) survived without morbidities, 1964 (32%) and 1251 (21%) survived with mild and severe morbidities, respectively, and 611 (10%) died. Predictors in the model were gestational age, small (20, outborn status, use of antenatal corticosteroids, and receipt of surfactant and mechanical ventilation on the first day of admission. High model discrimination was confirmed by internal bootstrap validation (bias-corrected C-statistic = 0.899, 95% confidence interval = 0.894-0.903). Predicted probabilities were consistent with the observed outcomes (Cg P value = .96).
Neonatal outcomes ranging from mortality to survival without morbidity in extremely preterm infants can be predicted on their first day in the NICU by using a multinomial model with good discrimination and calibration. The prediction model requires additional external validation.