The aim of this study was to determine the impact of a set of 2006 Russian alcohol policies on alcohol-related mortality in the country.
We used autoregressive integrated moving average interrupted time series techniques to model the impact of the policy on the number of sex-specific monthly deaths of those aged 15+ years due to alcohol poisoning, alcoholic cardiomyopathy, alcoholic liver cirrhosis, and alcohol-related mental and behavioral disorders. The time series began in January 2000 and ended in December 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in January 2006.
The alcohol policy resulted in a significant gradual and sustained decline in male deaths due to alcohol poisoning (?o = -92.631, p
To determine the impact of a suite of 2006 Russian alcohol control policies on deaths due to traffic accidents in the country.
We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time-series techniques to model the impact of the intervention on the outcome series. The time-series began in January 2000 and ended in December 2010. The alcohol policy was implemented in January 2006, providing 132 monthly observations in the outcome series, with 72 months of pre-intervention data and 60 months of post-intervention data.
The outcome variables were the monthly number of male- and female-specific deaths of those aged 15+ years due to transport accidents in Russia.
The 2006 set of alcohol policies had no impact on female deaths due to traffic accidents (?0 ?= -50.31, P = 0.27). However, the intervention model revealed an immediate and sustained monthly decrease of 203 deaths due to transport accidents for males (?0 ?= -203.40, P = 0.04), representing an 11% reduction relative to pre-intervention levels.
The implementation of the suite of 2006 Russian alcohol control policies is partially responsible for saving more than 2400 male lives annually that would otherwise have been lost to traffic accidents.
William Alex Pridemore is with the Department of Criminal Justice and Criminology, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta. Mitchell B. Chamlin is with the Department of Criminal Justice, Texas State University-San Marcos. Evgeny Andreev is with the Center for Demographic Research, the New Economic School, Moscow, Russia.
We took advantage of a natural experiment to assess the impact on suicide mortality of a suite of Russian alcohol policies.
We obtained suicide counts from anonymous death records collected by the Russian Federal State Statistics Service. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) interrupted time series techniques to model the effect of the alcohol policy (implemented in January 2006) on monthly male and female suicide counts between January 2000 and December 2010.
Monthly male and female suicide counts decreased during the period under study. Although the ARIMA analysis showed no impact of the policy on female suicide mortality, the results revealed an immediate and permanent reduction of about 9% in male suicides (Ln ?0 = -0.096; P = .01).
Despite a recent decrease in mortality, rates of alcohol consumption and suicide in Russia remain among the highest in the world. Our analysis revealed that the 2006 alcohol policy in Russia led to a 9% reduction in male suicide mortality, meaning the policy was responsible for saving 4000 male lives annually that would otherwise have been lost to suicide. Together with recent similar findings elsewhere, our results suggest an important role for public health and other population level interventions, including alcohol policy, in reducing alcohol-related harm.
Assess the impact of heavy drinking on homicide and suicide mortality in Russia between 1956 and 2002. MEASURES AND DESIGN: Alcohol-related mortality was used as a proxy for heavy drinking. We used autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to model total and sex-specific alcohol-homicide and alcohol-suicide relationships at the population level.
We found a positive and significant contemporaneous association between alcohol and homicide and between alcohol and suicide. We found no evidence of lagged relationships. These results held for overall and sex-specific associations.
Our results lend convergent validity to the alcohol-suicide link in Russia found by Nemtsov and to the alcohol-homicide associations found in cross-sectional analyses of Russia. Levels of alcohol consumption, homicide and suicide in Russia are among the highest in the world, and the mounting evidence of the damaging effects of consumption on the social fabric of the country reveals the need for intervention at multiple levels.