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Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature263925
Source
Nature. 2015 Jun 25;522(7557):465-9
Publication Type
Article
Date
Jun-25-2015
Author
Daniel E Horton
Nathaniel C Johnson
Deepti Singh
Daniel L Swain
Bala Rajaratnam
Noah S Diffenbaugh
Source
Nature. 2015 Jun 25;522(7557):465-9
Date
Jun-25-2015
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Abstract
Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth's atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive. Here we identify statistically significant trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns, which partially explain observed trends in surface temperature extremes over seven mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Using self-organizing map cluster analysis, we detect robust circulation pattern trends in a subset of these regions during both the satellite observation era (1979-2013) and the recent period of rapid Arctic sea-ice decline (1990-2013). Particularly substantial influences include the contribution of increasing trends in anticyclonic circulations to summer and autumn hot extremes over portions of Eurasia and North America, and the contribution of increasing trends in northerly flow to winter cold extremes over central Asia. Our results indicate that although a substantial portion of the observed change in extreme temperature occurrence has resulted from regional- and global-scale thermodynamic changes, the risk of extreme temperatures over some regions has also been altered by recent changes in the frequency, persistence and maximum duration of regional circulation patterns.
Notes
Comment In: Nature. 2015 Jun 25;522(7557):425-726108848
PubMed ID
26108856 View in PubMed
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Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature282007
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 May 09;114(19):4881-4886
Publication Type
Article
Date
May-09-2017
Author
Noah S Diffenbaugh
Deepti Singh
Justin S Mankin
Daniel E Horton
Daniel L Swain
Danielle Touma
Allison Charland
Yunjie Liu
Matz Haugen
Michael Tsiang
Bala Rajaratnam
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 May 09;114(19):4881-4886
Date
May-09-2017
Language
English
Publication Type
Article
Abstract
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.
PubMed ID
28439005 View in PubMed
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Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

https://arctichealth.org/en/permalink/ahliterature291479
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 05 09; 114(19):4881-4886
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Date
05-09-2017
Author
Noah S Diffenbaugh
Deepti Singh
Justin S Mankin
Daniel E Horton
Daniel L Swain
Danielle Touma
Allison Charland
Yunjie Liu
Matz Haugen
Michael Tsiang
Bala Rajaratnam
Author Affiliation
Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305; diffenbaugh@stanford.edu.
Source
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 05 09; 114(19):4881-4886
Date
05-09-2017
Language
English
Publication Type
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Keywords
Global warming
Models, Theoretical
Abstract
Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.
Notes
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PubMed ID
28439005 View in PubMed
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